Scottish Government

Research Study on the Effectiveness of NPPG 8 Town Centres and Retailing

2.57 Although CBRE does not hold data on convenience shopping floorspace in Scotland, we have obtained some recent data from the Institute for Grocery Distribution (IGD) relating to convenience goods. Table 2.18 below gives the overall pattern of town centre/out of centre food store openings since 1996.

Table 2.18 Convenience Completions

2.58 While this data is relatively inconclusive, the above table shows total convenience completions in Scotland, according to different locations.

2.59 Table 2.18 shows an arbitrary division between town centre and out of centre. Indeed, IGD have classed edge of centre locations amongst their out of centre data. Even with this classification, it is shown that a relatively high level of out of centre foodstore floorspace is well matched by strong levels of town centre completions, indeed town centre construction predominated in 1999 and 2000. From our review of the raw data, it is notable how many small stores such as Co-ops, Safeway at BP stations, small Tesco formats and Sainsburys Central add up to make significant amounts of floorspace in town centre or neighbourhood centre locations. However, town centre/neighbourhood location has also been used by IGD where they consider a new large foodstore has been located conveniently, to service an immediate neighbourhood catchment.

2.60 From our review of individual store developments in the IGD data, it appears that these stores do indeed relate to surrounding neighbourhood catchments and, some of them link to existing retail and other social/community amenities. Overall, it should be borne in mind that these classifications have not been on planning grounds, they are from IGD's own classification. A summary point on the convenience floorspace is to note again that the period since 1998 has not caused any significant reduction in annual floorspace completions in foodstores. There has been a slight drop since 1996, but completions since then seem to have remained steady at more than 200,000 sq. ft. per annum in Scotland. There is a lower level showing for 2002 but these data were immature, due to input figures for the whole year not yet being available.

Review Of Policies And Decisions

2.61 The report of desk research provided to the client group included various sources of sample policies and key decisions. In terms of general trends in retailing, our more pertinent findings were in terms of general patterns of common practice in planning policy. There is a clear consensus from the review of policies, decisions and interviews with planning specialists that the thrust of policy as contained in NPPG8, and most notably at paragraph 45, is replicated in local level policies across Scotland. There is limited deviation from the policy as set out in NPPG8. Indeed, there is some criticism from certain local authority sources of the limited scope for local interpretation of NPPG8 policy, especially where this restricts the flexibility of planning decisions in special circumstances such as in remote rural towns.

2.62 The evidence from Development Plan policies shows that there is only limited adaptation of retail issues to reflect local contexts, and that policies are inflexible to react to the rapidly changing nature of retail formats which has been evident over the five year period since the NPPG was issued. In contrast, there is evidence that Development Plan retail policies have succeeded in persuading retailers to adopt differing formats to address the key NPPG8 objective to sustain and enhance town centre vitality and viability.

2.63 The study team is aware of ongoing research by the Scottish Executive looking at the use of model policies. The study team believes that NPPG8 should work in a national framework which provides regular, accurate up dates on global retail trends in order to inform local policy. However, a strict model policy applied across the board in urban and rural Scotland might limit the freedom for local planning authorities, to adapt this context at a local level. Whilst there is evidence earlier in this section of the increasing efficiency of global retailing and the emergence of standard formats emerging from the review of general trends, there is also evidence in the general feedback across Scotland of different circumstances in different geographical areas (particularly in travel patterns in more remote areas). The diversity of experiences across Scotland would work against a standardised model policy.

Transport - Background Trends

2.64 Some useful sources have emerged from the CBP transportation research. There is no doubt that general shopping patterns and trends in Scotland are influenced by varied travel patterns across the country.

2.65 Scotland, in line with the rest of the UK, continues to see growth in the ownership and use of motorised transport. The number of motor vehicles licensed in Scotland in 2001 was over 2.2 million, 3% more than the previous year, and is estimated to be about 27% higher than the number in 1991.

2.66 The percentage of Scottish Households with the regular use of a car has increased from 57% in 1990 to 66% in 2000. In 2000, an estimated 44% of Scottish households had the regular use of one car, 19% had two cars, and 3% had three or more cars.

2.67 The estimated total volume of traffic on Scotland's roads in 2000 was about 43.2 billion vehicle kilometres; the estimated total volume of traffic on major roads has grown by about 16% since 1990.

2.68 Conversely, there has been a decline in the use of bus transport over the same period; in 2000 - 01 there were 436 million passenger journeys on local bus services, slightly more than in the previous year, but 25% less than in 1990-91. There has been some growth in rail travel with a 19% increase over the last 10 years, although rail travel accounts for a very small proportion of overall trips in Scotland.

2.69 These statistics reveal the growth in car ownership and car use across Scotland and the decline in the use of public transport.

2.70 The Scottish Household Survey Travel Diary results for 2001 report that:

• The main mode of travel used for shopping was as car driver (46% of all shopping trips) with a further 16% as car passenger, giving a total car mode share of 62%. Walking (22%) and bus (12%) were the next most popular modes of travel for shopping.
• Mode share differs markedly between types of area - total car mode share ranges from 57% in large urban areas to 80% in remote rural areas;
• The proportion of total trips represented by shopping is reasonably consistent across all types of area, typically between 21-23% of all trips;
• Some 83% of all shopping trips are less than 10km in trip length, with 68% being less than 5km;
• In respect of the timing of shopping trips, 82% of trips are made outside the main morning and evening peak travel periods.
• A higher proportion of shopping trips are made on Saturdays (21% of the weekly total) with some 10% on Sundays.

2.71 The current level of usage and growth in car travel highlights the challenges facing Scotland's town centres in meeting national objectives for promoting sustainable travel. The key issues raised for town centres include:

• The importance of increasing the use of sustainable transport modes for town centre journeys including shopping trips.
• Ways to improve access by public transport including the level and quality of provision.
• The importance of providing an attractive and safe pedestrian environment for town centre users;
• The opportunities to manage car travel and potentially mitigate adverse congestion impacts through traffic management and car parking controls; and
• The role of short term car parking in supporting the vitality and viability of town centres.
• The Scottish public has demonstrated through its travel behaviour that it values decentralised shopping in addition to retailing in town centres.

2.72 In line with the above transport context, CBP have also summarised other general trends and policy issues in the transportation context. Accessible town centres is a key theme of NPPG8 and NPPG17 on transport and planning. Sustainable transport is a key theme to emerging policy and addendum SPP17 on car parking ratios from Scottish Executive also demonstrates a commitment to controlling levels of car usage, through commitment to maximum parking standards.

General Shopping Public - Surveys Of Habits

2.73 The report of survey research to the client included a summary of general retail patterns observed through various client studies undertaken by CBRE in recent years. In the scope of this study, it was not possible to go any further with extensive sampling of households across urban and rural Scotland. However, it is apparent from various comments from consultees in this research that such an extensive national shoppers survey would be a worthwhile exercise in informing future national retail policy. However, from the CBRE analysis from sample surveys, there are some useful findings.

2.74 The analysis draws upon five household shopping surveys which have been completed for CBRE between November 1999 and July 2003 throughout Scotland. The surveys are as follows:

• North Edinburgh Survey on Shopping (November 1999). The survey area focused upon North Edinburgh, centring around the Granton district.
• Glasgow Household Shopping Survey (December 1999). This survey related to south west Glasgow.
• Perth & Kinross Household Shopping Survey (March / April 2002). This related to the geographical area of Perth & Kinross Council.
• Dunbar Telephone Survey (March / April 2003). This area focused upon the town of Dunbar and included the majority of East Lothian and part of the Borders.
• West Lothian Telephone Survey (June / July 2003). Based upon the geographical area of West Lothian Council.

2.75 While these surveys were undertaken by different research companies and involved different methodologies (particularly in terms of the individual questions asked by the survey) it is possible to draw some 'national' conclusions from the survey data which are relevant to this current research. The main aim of these surveys was to establish how each survey area was operating, in terms of determining the levels of trade draw flowing to the various retail destinations located within each area. The surveys also asked respondents for some more general information regarding their shopping habits. It is these responses which form the basis of this analysis.

2.76 At this stage, the physical characteristics of the five survey areas should be considered. While two of the surveys relate to urban areas, i.e. North Edinburgh and South West Glasgow, the Dunbar and West Lothian surveys comprise mainly rural areas within which a number of town centres and other retail locations are dispersed. The Perth & Kinross survey is principally rural in nature with Perth city centre playing the dominant role and various small scale landward towns also featuring.

2.77 The graph below details the frequency with which the shopping public undertake their main food convenience shopping trip. The majority of such trips relate to visiting a particular and significantly sized superstore. As can be seen, the vast majority of the public, in each survey over 55% of respondents, undertake such a shopping trip on a weekly basis. This trend is remarkably consistent within all five of the surveys featured.

Table 2.19 Frequency of Main Food Trips

2.78 Within three of the surveys, respondents were also asked the frequency which they undertook top-up convenience shopping trips.

Table 2.20 Frequency of Top-up Shopping Trips

2.79 As can be seen from Table 2.20 above, while some 20% of the population appear to be undertaking top-up trips on a weekly basis, over half of the respondents undertake such trips between two and six times per week. In each case, just less than 20% of respondents undertake top-up food shopping on a daily basis.

2.80 The survey data can also be used to provide an indication of how the population links shopping trips with other activities. This is one of the principles which underlines the promotion of the sequential approach in NPPG8, in that the ability for consumers to link shopping trips with other activities promotes sustainable travel patterns.

Table 2.21 Linked Trips

2.81 Table 2.21 demonstrates that for convenience shopping trips, between 30% - 50% of customers tend to link their main food shopping with other activities. In terms of comparison shopping trips, there is a greater tendency for such trips to be linked to other activities, with over 50% of consumers in both surveys participating in other activities while shopping. In the case of South West Glasgow, almost 65% of respondents linked their trips.

2.82 It should also be noted that the responses relating to convenience linked trips will also include superstore customers who undertake other activities and comparison goods shopping within the confines of a superstore. As such, this may over emphasise the level of 'traditional' linked trips associated with convenience shopping which involve superstore customers actually leaving the store and visiting a particular town centre or other elements of a retail location.

2.83 The survey data then allow an analysis of the kind of linked activities which are undertaken with both convenience and comparison goods shopping trips. Responses are as follows:

• other retailing;
• use of financial/ professional services;
• visit to restaurant and / or café
• leisure activities;
• other services;
• undertake shopping to and from work.

Tables 2.22 Associated Activities

2.84 The above tables detail the linked activities for both main food convenience shopping and comparison shopping trips. While the vast majority of respondents stated that they linked their main food shopping trips with other forms of retailing, for comparison shopping trips, it is evident that consumers are more likely to visit restaurants and cafés, financial and other professional services and undertake leisure activities.

2.85 The survey data also enables an analysis of how customers tend to travel to both their main food shopping destination and their main comparison shopping destination. These are detailed in the two tables below:

Tables 2.23 Methods of travel

2.86 Within the two urban areas (i.e. Edinburgh and Glasgow) the number of consumers using private car borne transport is lower for both convenience and comparison retailing, when compared to rural areas. In addition, consumers located within the urban areas seem more willing to use public transport, in particular the bus, when undertaking comparison retailing, as opposed to convenience retailing. For example, in the Edinburgh survey, whilst only 10% of respondents used the bus to undertake main food shopping, this rose to over 40% when undertaking comparison shopping. Similarly, in Glasgow this rose from under 20% for main food shopping to nearly 40% for comparison shopping.

2.87 Within the more rural areas, it is evident that consumers are more dependent upon private car borne transportation when undertaking both kinds of shopping, and figures of between 75% and 80% are in evidence for both convenience and comparison shopping.

2.88 The survey data enables some analysis to be undertaken of the factors which consumers consider to represent both positive and negative aspects of particular town centres. While only limited weight can be placed on this analysis (due to the fact that each survey relates to completely different retail locations) the analysis gives a broad idea of the kind of issues which consumers consider important. It appears that the most important positive aspect of a town centre is that it is located within close proximity to where a consumer lives. This is demonstrated within Table 2.24 below:

Table 2.24 Positive/Negative Aspects

2.89 This suggests that, in order to ensure consumers perceive particular centres in a positive way, they should ideally be located within close proximity to where people live. This is clearly important in terms of spatial planning and is relevant to the issue of defining new centres in this current NPPG8 research.

2.90 Other issues which feature with varying frequencies within the surveys include the following:

• car parking provision;
• the range of larger shops;
• the range of fashion shops;
• the quality of shops;
• the proximity of a centre to the place of work;
• the level of service and attitude of shop keepers;
• public transport provision;
• a high quality environment;
• a good quality pedestrian environment;
• the price of goods.

2.91 In terms of those issues which consumers consider to form negative aspects of a particular town centre, the survey suggests that consumers tend to be less willing to identify any particular category, with the vast majority of consumers reporting that they dislike nothing about a particular centre. However, one issue which does feature as a negative aspect of town centres is the adequacy of car parking provision.

2.92 The analysis of shopping habits in this section is helpful in identifying in broad terms, key common features of food and non-food shopping in Scotland. Whilst the data is sourced from only five individual shopping surveys located principally within the central belt of Scotland, broad conclusions are as follows:

• the majority of consumers (approximately 55% of the population) undertakes their main food convenience shopping trip on a weekly basis.
• in terms of top-up convenience shopping it appears that:
  • over 50% of consumers undertake such trips between 2 and 6 times per week;
  • approximately 20% of consumers undertake such trips on a weekly basis;
  • approximately 20% undertake such trips on a daily basis.
• Consumers tend to link their comparison goods shopping trips to other activities (including other shopping) to a greater extent than when undertaking main-food shopping trips.
• The principal activity linked to main food convenience shopping trips appears to be undertaking other shopping, followed by visiting financial and professional services.
• For comparison shopping trips, whilst undertaking other types of shopping also features strongly, consumers tend to link a greater number of trips to visiting restaurants and café's and undertaking other leisure activities.
• Within the urban areas, consumers are more dependent upon private car-borne transport when undertaking main food convenience shopping trips than comparison shopping trips.
• Within the urban areas, the use of public transport is more common than the use of the private car when undertaking comparison shopping.
• Within rural areas, consumers appear to be more dependent upon private car-borne transport when undertaking both comparison and convenience shopping trips.

Public And Private Sector Questionnaires

2.93 An indication of general retail trends was gathered from the main questionnaires employed in the study. The Questionnaire was distributed to all Local Planning Authorities in Scotland and to over 200 private sector interests. Over thirty responses were returned from the public and a similar number of responses were returned from the private sector. The public & private sector questionnaire responses were analysed separately to identify interest group views on retail issues.

2.94 The public sector questionnaire responses on general retail trends in Scotland can be summarised as follows:-

• City/town centres, local planning authority responses were 44% positive and 41% negative. Comments were made about the increase in larger scale store formats in town centres and a concentration of development activity in prime retail areas. Whilst it was acknowledged that investment helps to secure the vitality of central areas, it was commented that this leads to increased vacancy rates and degradation of older, traditional shop units.

Table 2.25 General Views - City/Town Centres.

• For district/smaller centres, only 30% were positive, 37% were negative and a third were neutral. Public sector respondents commentated that retailing in district centres is consolidating into large, multi-purpose store units at the expense of traditional street patterns with butchers, bakers etc. Respondents considered that this reduces the quality of centres and that traditional shopping areas are being replaced by "non-active" office or residential land-uses. It was also commented that there is a polarization of investment toward the largest centres and that the gap between successful and declining retail centres is likely to increase through time.
• 41% were positive towards new developments and centres but nearly 60% were either negative or neutral. A number of respondents commented that new shopping development is important to regeneration projects. However, a number of respondents criticised the expansion of superstores in out-of-centre locations to carry non-food comparison goods which deflects spending from traditional centres.
• Comments towards changes in foodstore patterns in the last five years were 33% positive and 41% negative, the remainder neutral. Most respondents observed that food-stores are becoming larger, and carrying a greater range of often non-food goods. Whilst many respondents felt that these increase consumer choice and accessibility, others noted that it is difficult to fit large stores into the urban fabric which raises pressure for out-of-town sites.
• On retail parks, comments were much less evenly balanced, only 12% were positive towards recent changes in retail park development, 40% were negative and 48% had no view or were neutral (table 2.26 below). It was observed that out-of-centre retail parks draw investment away from town centres. The development of mezzanine floorspace extensions to increase retail park floorspace was criticised.

Table 2.26 General Views - Retail Parks.

• General changes with large scale retail formats attracted a 25% positive response and a 44% negative response. Respondents generally agreed that there is high demand for the expansion and new build of large scale retail formats. There was no clear consensus among respondents as to the effect of these developments on town centres as it was argued that large, bulky goods stores do not directly compete with town centre retailing.
• In relation to leisure developments, a third were positive comments. This figure was matched by negative comments. A further third were neutral. It was commented that leisure developments are often floorspace intensive and that this causes problems for locating them in town centres. It was highlighted that leisure developments are important to the vitality of town centres and for encouraging linked trips. Several respondents commented that the market for traditional leisure developments (anchored by multiplex cinemas) has dropped off in recent years.
• In terms of general changes on retail store formats, only 26% drew positive comments. 42% were negative and 32% were neutral (table 2.27). Respondents commented that there has been an increase in the size of new out-of-centre development proposals and in the range of goods that are sold from these locations. It was commented that the demand for large, modern units is problematic as these cannot be accommodated into traditional town centre locations. Public sector respondents were positive about the emergence of new retail formats such as street markets which help to improve the vitality & viability of town centres.

Table 2.27 General Views - New Retail Formats

2.95 From the points above, the study team have drawn the conclusion that planning authorities in Scotland are generally negative, or not prepared to give their opinion on the general changes in different retail formats over the past five years. Thus whilst there is some encouragement in the 44% positive response to retail development in city/town centres, there seems to be little inclination to welcome other forms of retailing.

2.96 The private sector questionnaire responses on general retail trends in Scotland can be summarised as follows:-

• Over a third were positive about city and town centres, but 46% were negative (Table 2.28 below). Comments were made about adaptations in retail format and style and allowances made for larger shop units through the availability of premises in new developments. However, adverse comments were made in relation to poor town/ city centre environments. Operators of banks and building societies (Class 2: Financial/ Professional services) were keen to see the importance of Class 2 uses being recognised in shopping locations. Consultants drew attention to the constraints within a city centre to providing new retail development and expansion of existing businesses.

Table 2.28 General Views on City/Town Centres.

• On district/ smaller centres, there were more adverse comments with 70% being negative. This generally seemed to relate to the fact that smaller centres were perceived as less viable and suffering from the over dominance of larger central locations.
• Just over half were negative in responding to the kinds of changes seen in new developments and centres in the last 5 years. Some of the adverse comment was in relation to restrictions placed on the expansion of out of centre retail and the benefits which would otherwise flow from new forms of retail development. Consultants in particular noted that out-of-centre shopping schemes are increasing the range of goods they offer and should not be prevented from expansion if they are easily accessible by public transport and providing additional benefits to the shopping public.
• In relation to food stores, comments were more positive, with various references made to a variety of new food store formats being developed to fit into more locations in different centres. A number of comments related to the breadth of retail offer available at convenience stores and the fact that this is welcomed by the shopping public.
• The comments on retail parks were 40% positive and notably, 33% neutral (Table 2.29 below) Retail operators believed that retail park formats were helpful in assisting diversification and new investment providing a range and choice of services to consumers. Some consultants argued for a broader range and diversity of goods as did financial/ professional services operators. Investors were keen to see more large scale floor space formats to satisfy customer demands.

Table 2.29 - General Views Retail Parks.

• Larger scale retail formats were raised and this gathered one third of respondents with a positive view, but 46% were negative. Operators were concerned that there was delay in restrictions surrounding proposals for large retail formats which could be beneficial to customer requirements. Others highlighted some tension between the benefits of car accessible larger retail stores, and the negative effect of traffic congestion.
• Positive comments to leisure developments were recorded at 42%, with less than 30% being negative (the rest were neutral). There was some comment about the saturation of the leisure market and this resulting in closure of some of the units and redevelopment to other purposes. There was a variety of different views on the optimal location for leisure development and whether it should be combined with other land uses, or accommodated in central locations.
• New retail store formats were raised and this attracted positive comments from nearly half of the respondents with a view (Table 2.30 below). One of the key issues raised was the polarity of different retail format requirements. On the one hand, larger multi-function units emerging to satisfy consumer demand for convenience and on the other, diversification into small streamlined outlets which can fit into more challenging city centre locations.

Table 2.30 - General Views New retail Store Formats

• On other issues, private sector respondents noted the increase in internet retailing but did not feel that this would be a significant challenge to high street trading. Some retailers are making a successful business from home delivery of convenience/ bulky goods through internet ordering. Whilst this brings merchandise to 'the front door'; there is also the pattern of internet café's bringing the shopper back into the district or town centre to use internet café's etc. Finally, it was noted by some parties that rural communities suffer from a lack of choice and competition in retail services.

Feedback From Discussion Forums And Interviews

2.97 The various participants in the discussion forums and interviews generally started their commentary with observations on general retail trends in Scotland. Key issues to emerge from the discussions forums included the following:-

• Innovation in retail formats was in evidence, but questions arose as to whether this has been beneficial or simply a method of overcoming national guidance.
• There was a strong debate about the need for a national retail planning policy with the consensus of the view that the 'one size fits all' approach was unsuited to Scottish circumstances.
• The level of prescription in the NPPG was criticised by both public and private sector representatives, and greater flexibility should be available at the local level.
• There was a view that retail policy now, in fact, conflicted with general planning guidance, given the overly prescriptive nature of the guidance and the limited flexibility at local level.

2.98 The above comments were gathered at the Stirling Forum which involved a wide range of planning consultants, local planning authority officials, retailers and developers. The Perth Forum involved representatives of independent retailers and the comments on general trends and retail changes in Scotland included general agreement that the role of the bulk food shop is no longer dominant in town centres, and whilst there was still a role for independent food stores to be located in town centres, there was an important recognition by attendees that these shops were performing more of a specialist function focussing on quality. The multi-outlet supermarket operators, whilst choosing to create new town centre formats (Tesco Metro, Sainsburys Local, etc.) were continuing to be successful in trading from large out of centre locations and established shopping patterns were now based on car-borne trips.

2.99 The issue of retail "creep" from foodhall to electronics to clothing in supermarkets was raised, and recognised as a key objective of the multi-national supermarket operators in recent years. Planning authorities often have limited scope through original planning permissions to restrict this creep and the implications for existing centres are therefore often ignored or bypassed.

2.100 Other discussion groups involved the Faculty of Advocates and a separate session with planning solicitors. From these groups, there was a clear issue raised by the Advocates in relation to the purpose of planning in general. It was suggested that the maintenance of an innovative, competitive and efficient retail sector was an important key trend to uphold in Scotland and the general view from planning Advocates was that current policy is acting more as a control on this, rather than a facilitator. In connection with this, there was resistance to the requirement for developers of retail facilities to prove a retail need, the key issue being the impact of new retail on the role of established centres. Similar themes were raised by the planning law specialists from a selection of solicitors' firms in Scotland. This group felt that planning policy on retailing was potentially over-bureaucratic in such an important and dynamic sector of the business economy.

2.101 Finally, from these specific face to face interviews, the comments on general trends in Scotland can be grouped between the different public and private sector interviewees.

2.102 The local authority interviewees broadly support the NPPG in its ability to create a clear framework for regeneration of town centres. It has been reasonably successful in focusing certain forms of new retail development in existing centres. From a negative perspective, out of centre pressures clearly still exist, and these pressures have resulted in the approval of significant levels of new out of centre floor space, together with pressure to amend existing consents enabling a wider range of goods to be sold from both supermarkets and retail parks. There is evidence of increased decentralisation of facilities, arguably to subsidiary 'centres', bringing floor space closer to households. The success of major schemes such as Fort Kinnaird and Braehead demonstrate that the public supports this form of retail development, despite Government policy which seeks to direct it towards existing centres. The issue of sustainability in this is under realised.

2.103 Other key trends include increased format requirements for primarily non-food retailers, and the consequential problems in accommodating these formats within existing centres.

2.104 Planning consultants agree that the NPPG has been successful in encouraging developers and retailers to think about centres, and this has been a positive outcome. From a negative perspective, the NPPG as a whole is perceived as a 'no to retail' standpoint, requiring all retailing to justify its existence. The NPPG is unable to deal with the dynamics of the retail sector, instead focusing on mechanistic capacity assessments without recognising that retailers will always wish to innovate and change floor space formats. The tone of NPPG8 could therefore more positively invite retail change, subject to local tests of potential adverse effects.

2.105 Opportunity sites identified in Local Plans often remain undeveloped due to constraints which can only be overcome through intervention by the public sector. Ineffective sites should either be promoted and brought into effective use, or be removed to ensure that these do not unrealistically influence the sequential assessment. See Section 5 for more detail on the study team's findings on site development issues.

General Changes in Retailing - Implications for Policy

2.106 Throughout the rest of this study, there are challenges for the research team in reconciling various opinions, sometimes divergent, in terms of the different issues in retailing in Scotland. From the overview of general retail changes, there are some more tangible and factual results emerging in terms of general changes in the supply chain, retailer activity, store formats, growth in retail, transportation and preferences of the general public. From the review in this section, we identify the key implications for future land use policy.

GC1 - The Strong Retail Sector Requires an Increased Profile

2.107 The findings in this chapter point very clearly towards a very strong retail sector in Scotland, sustaining 230,000 jobs, 19 billion of annual expenditure and over 22,500 retail outlets. The sector is subject to numerous different drivers for change including political, social-economic, geo-demographic and other aspects. The urban planning implications from this strong Scottish sector include a continual need to accommodate growth, constant development of retail and other commercial formats and evolving opinions in terms of ideal location for trading purposes, improvements in accessibility and important effects of competitive trading, not only between retailers, but between centres which offer a broad range of retail and other facilities.

2.108 The first line of the Policy Context in NPPG8 states that "Shopping is an essential part of life for most people in Scotland, serving both their everyday needs and providing more specialist goods. It also has important links to tourism and leisure activities. Retailing is in turn an important economic activity in the service sector".

2.109 This study has shown that there is continuing importance on the socio-economic benefits at both local and national levels in Scotland. In the context of national concerns about a falling population in Scotland, a drive to improve competitive places / quality of life and a new National Planning Framework, the Study Team believes that the importance of a strong retail and commercial sector and the promotion of a network of good quality urban centres deserves an increasing profile. This has to link with the national debate on issues such as; strategic initiatives on economic development zones, city-regions and focal points for central government investment.

GC2 - Dynamic Retail Sector Requires Constant Monitoring

2.110 A key implication from the dynamic retail sector is a need to constantly monitor retail change in Scotland through good quality data and other forms of measurement. This monitoring process should be actively engaged in policy formulation.

2.111 This section has presented important findings in relation to household spending patterns throughout Scotland, retail operator formats, developer activity, planning application processing and general shopping habits; to demonstrate that Scotland enjoys a rapidly changing retail sector with highly dynamic influences on retail formats, location and competition. In this context, the Scottish planning system can expect continual change. It should not seek to provide fixed retail systems which resist change. There is a need to identify a structure of urban centres which is versatile, dynamic and sufficiently flexible to allow new retail formats to evolve, to the benefit of the shopping public.

2.112 The dynamic retail sector is a key implication for the existing broad policy objective in NPPG8 " to maintain an efficient, competitive and innovative retail sector offering consumer choice, consistent with the overall commitment to town centres".

2.113 The study has found that development plans tend to follow the National policy lead. There is scant evidence of up to date sources being regularly monitored to assess continuing change in the retail sector. Although the Scottish Executive has produced an annual monitor of retail development patterns by planning application activity, and has also taken part in update seminars and discussions, the Study Team believe that there is scope for significant improvements in national data sources, to monitor the dynamics of the retail sector ( see later in Section 7 on Retail Assessment Methodology And Data Sources).

GC3 - Cyclical Development Activity - Acknowledge Future Development Patterns.

2.114 From the various sources used to show the level of development proposals, planning application, consent granted and build out rates, it is clear that retail-led development activity in Scotland follows a cyclical pattern. A peak has been identified for 1998 to 2000, with high levels of out-of-centre and town centre retail floorspace. More recently, the town centre floorspace completions have held strong, but out-of-centre developments such as factory outlet schemes and decentralised shopping malls have abated. However, from past trends, it is a reasonable assumption that the property market will see another lift in activity, probably from 2005 onwards. The study team suspects that this will be a lower peak, with a more profound mix of town centre activity, along with the redevelopment of other existing floorspace in other established locations.

2.115 The implication of this for future policy is that there might well be a need to look at the traditional definition of "Town Centres and Retailing" in NPPG8 and any successor guidance. It is suggested that future patterns of retail development are more likely to focus upon established locations, which have sustainable characteristics in terms of land use and transportation and this will bring into play a range of retail centres and locations which will be part of the clamour for new floorspace, redevelopment and increased density. Future floorspace monitoring and resultant policy might have to re-define the categories of retail development, away from town centre "versus" out of centre, and to embrace the value of some of the centres emerging from the out of centre locations. Another implication from this could be to review the approach which lists different kinds of particular retail and leisure developments, under "assessing new developments" (para. 54 onwards in NPPG8). Perhaps future policy could take a broader view of likely future change, rather than fixing on a "present day" typology.

GC4 - Accessibility a Key Issue

2.116 The general review of retail change and household shopping patterns has revealed some critical facts in terms of increasing vehicle ownership in Scotland (62% of households having use of a car for shopping purposes). There is a greater use of cars in the rural areas (up to 80%) than in urban areas (57%). However, 68% of shopping trips incur a journey of less of 5 kilometres and 82% of trips are made at off peak times. The study has also made a general assessment of some available household shopping survey data and this shows more than half undertaking a weekly food shop, mostly by car. In addition, it shows that by far the most appreciated characteristic of the nearby centre, stated by shoppers, is its "closeness to home".

2.117 From these factors, we conclude that increased convenience and accessibility to retail facilities is of paramount importance in future land use policy for retail and other commercial developments. This does not necessarily tally with other transportation policy which is seeking to secure marked reductions in private car use. The evidence from this study suggests that shopping is largely an off peak activity and remains popular for car usage. However, in urban areas where public transport facilities are more abundant, it is notable how the use of the private car reduces.

2.118 The implication for policy is quite far reaching. It suggests a broader approach to future land use policies and proposals; to look at the pattern of centres in urban areas in Scotland and whether this is producing a convenient spread of locations which provide a choice for private car and public transport usage, with an essential emphasis on bringing retail and associated facilities closer to the population. This will necessitate some closer scrutiny of public transport improvements, especially nodal locations for interchange (and possibly land-value capture - an issue currently the subject of separate research for the Scottish Executive Development Department). This also implies a need to address a level playing-field for parking control as well as parking allowances, between central and decentralised locations.

GC5 - Multi-Locational Dimension - Managing Succession / Decline

2.119 Another key issue from the review of general changes is the prolific nature of the retail sector in Scotland. From the ample levels of proposed floorspace over the past five years, it is apparent that this has improved the overall spread of retail activity into various existing and new locations in Scottish cities, towns and urban areas.

2.120 This has an implication for paragraph 84 of NPPG8 where it is noted that deficiencies in retail provision should be assessed, along with measures to respond to demand over the Development Plan, by reference to location and type of retailing. Paragraph 91 of NPPG8 promotes the monitoring of Development Plan policy and retail developments and trends. This study suggests that these areas need to be assessed in more detail and promoted more strongly in future policy. A critical element of our review of general changes in retailing is the succession pattern of multiple locations providing retailing facilities. This evolutionary succession will inevitably suggest that there will be a survive/struggle pattern amongst different centres.

2.121 This pattern will prompt questions regarding the viability of sustaining of all the centres in an urban area. Indeed, it suggests that a planning viability sift will be necessary, in order to select the more successful, optimal locations for future retail and commercial development. This has implications for paragraph 32 of the existing NPPG8 where some centres are acknowledged to be under challenge and showing signs of decline. It is noted that planning authorities will have to manage the decline in the relative importance of certain centres. This aspect of managed decline raises questions of transport infrastructure, regeneration, alternative uses and masterplan/design exercises and further advice will be required in future.

GC6 - General Attitudes - Polarity

2.122 This section has presented general responses to the public and private questionnaire surveys. Respondents were asked what their general attitude was towards changes in the last five years according to city/towns, district centres, new development formats, etc. When the study team put these attitudinal responses together, it was found that 70% of responses from the public sector were negative or ambivalent (i.e. they were not inclined to be positive about retail change in the last five years). On closer scrutiny of the questionnaires, amongst various issues, this revealed a significant level of dissatisfaction with the level of change forced upon established policies in Development Plans, by format change and market share pursuit in the development industry.

2.123 On the other hand, the private sector was more positive overall. Less than 60% returned a negative or ambivalent response. When these responses were articulated in questionnaire returns, it appears that the private sector's negativity is led more towards the restrictions in standardised retail policy which are frustrating attempts to achieve new forms of retail development.

2.124 An overall negative general attitude is an interesting implication to analyse. The study team believes that the polarity of views between public and private sector is frequently encountered in the retail and town centres debate. The implication is to carefully weigh the divergent opinions found here and in other consultation exercises and perhaps to cut between the opposing views, with recommendations for a way forward which concentrates more on measures to promote "competitive place" for retailing; and to place fresh catalysts into the system to promote town centre opportunities and allow a more open approach to emerging strong centres elsewhere in urban areas. The study team has sought to move forward from any impasse due to opposing views, by focussing on the best conclusions to promote town centres and to improve the overall offer to the shopping public.

GC7 - Re-Energise Retail Planning - Town Centre Improvement Fund?

2.125 From the above findings on general attitudes, the study team believes that the quest to move forward from the potential danger of entrenched attitudes will be assisted by a national lead which seeks to re-energise the retail planning sector.

2.126 It certainly seems that general attitudes in the discussion groups and interviews are keen to encourage an invigorated retail sector in Scotland, which brings about a pride of place in our town centres. There is evidence to show concern that the system might be placing restriction on innovation, competition and efficiencies in the sector. There have been comments from practitioners who frequently deal with local authority policy, that they sometimes encounter a "no to retail" attitude, if they are out of centre and a lack of welcome for town centre/ edge of centre schemes.

2.127 What is of concern is that five years of retail policy has not brought about an energised and enthused sector, in terms of retail planning practitioners involved in the process. The implication is to suggest that a refreshed approach might re-energise the system. Business Improvement Districts might be a way forward, with new forms of annual financial assistance granted for winning submissions for town centre improvements. This would reflect the vigour that has been experienced from the annual round of scheme bidding for the Integrated Transport Fund; and it is an approach which could be closely allied with the City Growth Fund, emerging from the Scottish Executive's Cities Review. The Study Team believes that the same compulsion and increased flair could be ignited by way of a Town Centre Improvement Fund for Scottish towns which have monitored change, assessed viable sites and designed viable schemes which will serve to satisfy the aims of national retail policy and other strategic objectives.

GC8 - Shoppers' Views - a Rolling National Survey?

2.128 Although the client brief focussed this study on a collection of views across the retail and commercial property industry and amongst public authorities, the study team chose to draw from a number of other quantifiable sources, which have proved useful in measuring change in retail patterns. One area which the team accepts was cursorily covered due to the scope of the study, was the sampling of views from the shopping public, by way of reference to 5 relatively recent household shopping studies undertaken by CBRE. In the eventual analysis, this source proved to be a very strong lead on the habits and views of the shopping public and how this can inform critical aspects of modern shopping patterns in Scotland and the actual preferences of the shopper (as noted above- issues such as closeness to home being by far the most important aspect of the local centre and the modal split transport indicators).

2.129 The implication is that value could be drawn from a more telling urban / rural sample of households across Scotland, with a questionnaire structure to address various issues arising in NPPG8 and indeed from this study. The study team suggests that there could be great benefit from a rolling annual programme of national retail surveys, which could be collated centrally and neutrally, to help to inform policy. The cost of running this data collection could be recouped by making the survey available for interested parties to obtain.

2.130 In the same way that central government has placed importance in the past, on reliable sources of household expenditure estimates, an ongoing survey-base on Scottish household shopping (and leisure) preferences could be come an acknowledged source. Sections 6 and 7 later refer to similar sources (in particular the Scottish Household Survey).

GC9 - Broader Dimension?

2.131 Another key point from the general trends is the fact that new formats, new locations, new centres and a new overall succession of "commercial place" is emerging across urban areas in Scotland. This has the implication of a broader dimension for future policy. Perhaps future SPP guidance can dwell upon "urban centres" as the focus for our communities, with a new policy which is scoped to cover all aspects of strong centres in urban areas which display qualitative benefits, whether it be by way of a strong retail, leisure, office, transport hub, civic function or other functions. The broader reach of policy would be to refresh the definition of "centres" and to seek a wider agenda for high quality urban places, sustaining energy efficient, convenient, healthy and vibrant lifestyles.