Scottish Government

Social Justice
a Scotland where everyone matters
Indicators of Progress 2003

YOUNG PEOPLE

Milestone 7: Halving the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment

This milestone is directly measured by information from one indicator. The source of the information is based on data from the Labour Force Survey which is run by the Office for National Statistics. The indicator is defined as the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not classed as a student, not in employment nor participating in a government training programme. The latest information is available for March 2002 - February 2003.

16-19 year olds not in education, training or employment

Since 1999 there has been little change in the percentage of 16-19 year olds not in education, training or employment. The estimate for the year ending February 2003 shows that some 14 per cent of all 16-19 year olds are not in education, training or employment.

Chart 7a: Percentage of 16-19 year olds not in education, training or employment

Source: Labour Force Survey: Office for National Statistics

Gender analysis

Over the last four years the LFS shows that at the Scotland level, young men are slightly more likely than women not to be in education, training or employment.

Analysis from the 2001 Census

The 2001 Census allows a comparison of the percentages of young people aged 16-19 years old who are not in education, training or employment in various subgroups and areas to be made. The 2001 Census information is not directly comparable with the LFS because (i) The census is a self-completion survey whereas the Labour Force Survey is based on interview; (ii) the census is based on 100% sample of the population, whereas the Labour Force Survey produces estimates based on a survey of a smaller sample of the population and is subject to sampling error; and (iii) the Census data is a snapshot of circumstances at 29 April 2001 and the Labour Force Survey covers a specified period. The LFS is the official source of labour market statistics.

The Census shows 13 per cent of young people aged 16-19 years old who are not in education, training or employment.

Table 7b: Percentage of 16-19 year-olds not in employment, education, training by council area, urban rural classification, and interim Scottish Multiple Index of Deprivation, 2001 Census

There are differences between areas, ranging from 7 per cent of young people in East Dunbartonshire to 19 per cent in Glasgow City. The levels of young men and women not in education, training or employment also vary by area. There is some variation between urban, rural and remote areas, with some 14 per cent of young people in large urban areas and 10 per cent in rural areas not in education, training or employment. About 23 per cent of young people in the most relatively deprived wards are not in education, training or employment. This compares to some 5 per cent in the least deprived areas. This is based on the Interim Scottish Multiple Index of Deprivation. When interpreting these results it is important to take account of demographic differences between areas. The 2001 Census shows higher proportions of young people in large urban areas compared to the more rural areas. The proportions of students entering higher education in Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow go some way to explain this. Taking this into account, it can be seen that the proportions of 16 and 17 year olds in Glasgow City are considerably larger than the Scottish average, but at the 18 and 19 year old group Glasgow's proportion is closer to the average.

Table 7c: Percentage of 16-19 year-olds not in employment, education, training by single year age bands for Scotland and local authorities in Scotland.

Background data

The following background data corresponds to the charts and commentary included in this milestone.

Table 7d: Percentage of 16-19 year olds not in education, training or employment

Availability of data and references

Given the current size of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) it is not possible to provide sub-Scotland figures disaggregated by disability or ethnicity.

The publication of the 2001 Census of Population has resulted in population estimates being revised. This means the historical series of the LFS needs to be re-weighted using these revised population estimates. However, publication of the Mid-2002 population estimates for England and Wales was delayed until 19 September 2003. As a result, the re-weighting exercise for all the LFS data for GB has been delayed. The Office for National Statistics will announce the timetable for release of the revised data as soon as possible.

The LFS data used in this report is therefore not consistent with the 2001 Census based population revisions.

In previous Social Justice publications, data for the relevant Social Justice milestones was taken from the Spring quarter each year. For milestone 7 and 15, the sample sizes are relatively small and the data is subject to greater sampling errors. To minimise this volatility, annual LFS data has been used for these indicators. This will improve the reliability of the indicator as the annual data is based on a larger sample.

In addition, the Scottish Executive and the Office for National Statistics have jointly undertaken an exercise to boost the Scottish element of the Labour Force Survey. This will produce better estimates for the milestones that are based on the LFS and for some indicators further disaggregation by key client groups and geographical areas will be possible, including an urban/ rural split. It is anticipated that results from the first year of the boosted survey will be available in Autumn 2004.

Social Focus on Urban Rural Scotland
www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00257-00.asp