Scottish Government

The Ability of Public Transport to Cope withTarget Passenger Increases: Final Report

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The study team would like to thank all of those individuals who provided data, advice and opinions for this study, particularly the representatives from local authorities, Strathclyde Passenger Transport, the bus and rail industries and the Scottish Executive.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Study Approach

1. Colin Buchanan and Partners (CBP) and Napier University's Transport Research Institute (TRi) were commissioned by the Scottish Executive to investigate the ability of public transport in Scotland to cope with target passenger increases.

2. As set out in the project brief, the aims of the research have been:

• to investigate the capacity of existing public transport modes within Scotland (buses, coaches, trains and the Glasgow Underground) to cope with desired modal shift
• to investigate the ability of the existing main service providers to meet policy modal shift aspirations, both in the short-term and in the long-term.

3. The project requirement was to assess the likelihood of being able to meet the various targets set out in the relevant Local Transport Strategies, from Scottish Executive policy and from the draft Scottish Strategic Rail Study (since published in its final form), with the emphasis being on the identification of underlying capacity issues that may hinder target achievement through incremental growth in existing infrastructure and operations. The study has focused upon these specific aims and this requirement and has not considered the wider issues relating to the likelihood of specific targets being met (e.g. service quality, intra- and intermodal integration, perceptions of reliability).

4. The study has been concerned with just one element of the package of measures that will be required to be put in place in order that public transport patronage growth and modal shift from car will occur. As such, the findings do not necessarily mean that a certain level of patronage growth will actually take place, but do identify whether the target growth can be accommodated should the increased demand materialise.

5. The study has focused predominantly on the four cities where the greatest patronage growth is anticipated (i.e. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee) and on the peak periods (i.e. 0800-0900 and 1700-1800, Monday to Friday), since this is where spare capacity is generally at a premium. Where appropriate, though, the study has considered other locations and/or time periods where available capacity may be scarce, together with the wider issues which may impact upon surrounding local authorities' targets.

6. The report sets out the policy context and identifies the various public transport targets that exist in Scotland. This includes the national bus and rail targets set by the Scottish Executive, the local targets set by local authorities in their Local Transport Strategies and the rail patronage forecasts from the Scottish Strategic Rail Study.

7. In order to conduct a detailed analysis of the capacity of the bus and rail systems, additional data on the existing capacity utilisation were required, together with the views of the key players responsible for public transport provision. The methodology was therefore based largely upon three distinct elements:

• peak period bus and rail vehicle occupancy surveys (in conjunction with analysis of the existing data, which included a number of previous rail studies)
• discussions with local authorities, SPT and the Scottish Executive
• discussions with public transport companies

Key Findings

8. When converted to a required annual patronage increase in order that the targets be met, the local targets (and sometimes the SSRS forecasts) tend to be more stringent than the national ones set by the Scottish Executive.

9. For bus, there have been recent increases in both the distance operated by and the number of passenger journeys on local bus services, following a sustained period of decline in patronage and fairly stable total distance operated. For the city-regions upon which this study is primarily focused, only Grampian experienced a decline in patronage in the most recent period (i.e. between 1999/00 and 2000/01).

10. For the national rail network, the analysis has shown that there has been very little change in the infrastructure in recent years, but that there has been considerable growth in each train miles, passenger journeys and passenger miles since privatisation in the mid-1990s. After a period of sustained growth, rail patronage (both for ScotRail and Anglo-Scottish routes) has dipped more recently, although this may well have been caused by the post-Hatfield speed restrictions and the ScotRail industrial action rather than any underlying change in demand. On the Glasgow Underground, there have been fluctuations both in supply and demand throughout the decade under analysis.

11. In general terms, this study has identified considerable spare capacity exists within the urban and inter-urban public transport systems in Scotland. Furthermore, rail capacity is more easily and directly influenced by the Scottish Executive and SPT and, to a lesser extent, local authorities, whereas bus service provision is less easily influenced.

12. For bus services, according to the survey findings, the Scottish Executive target growth of 5% by 2006 should be able to be accommodated in each of the cities, even at peak times. In terms of the various LTS targets, all can be accommodated within the total bus capacity provided in each city in each peak period, but in certain cases (i.e. Aberdeen in both peaks and both Glasgow and Edinburgh in the morning peak) sufficient seating capacity is not available to absorb the increases.

13. Across all four cities in the peak periods, and occasionally off-peak, on-bus overcrowding currently takes place on certain services - this would be expected to worsen as patronage increases, unless additional capacity is provided at the critical times.

14. For rail, it would appear from this analysis, albeit based upon fairly limited train occupancy data, that much of the required patronage growth can be catered for within either the existing or planned provision, even at peak times. A number of specific likely problems have been identified and an approximation made of the additional resources or infrastructure enhancement likely to be required.

15. Virtually all peak capacity problems would seem to be able to be solved by lengthening existing train services, which would require a relatively small increase in the available train fleet (and presumably staff and other resources), but without significant infrastructure work. Specific, localised problems may still remain should the full target growth be required to be met on all routes at peak times.

16. In terms of the target setting bodies, this study has highlighted the following general issues with regard to public transport's ability to cope, both with existing demand, and new demand that is implied in the targets:

• the majority of larger authorities have set targets for growth in public transport use and/or mode shift away from car; these targets were set in one of two ways - aspirationally, or in relation to some form of modelling exercise.
• problems of insufficient capacity to meet demand are most acute in morning peak travel into large cities. Authorities do not generally have quantitative measures of the scale of the problem, and so the results of this study will assist them.
• most authorities have a wide range of measures that they have implemented, or are intending to implement, to achieve their targets. It is the package as a whole, rather than the sum of individual parts, that is intended to achieve results.
• there are problems in working to achieve targets. These are caused, firstly, by the difficulties of delivery in the rail system; and, secondly, by the differing priorities of commercial bus operators and local authorities who are more concerned with maximising social benefit.
• nonetheless, there is evidence from some authorities that they are moving towards the achievement of their targets.

17. Specifically relating to the discussions with bus operators, the main findings are as follows:

• the reversal in the long term decline in bus patronage is particularly evident in Glasgow and Edinburgh and on the high frequency express services operated by Scottish Citylink and some of the other bus operators.
• generally speaking there is sufficient capacity currently available to meet peak period demand in all places and spare capacity is generally available outside of Glasgow and Edinburgh. Incidents of overcrowding and/or passengers left behind are usually due to bunching caused by traffic congestion rather than a shortage of capacity across the full peak period.
• operators actively attempt to match vehicle capacity with demand on individual journeys by converting single decker routes to double decker ones or by using higher capacity vehicles when necessary.
• operators have been able to cope so far with the upsurge in demand brought about by the national concessionary fares scheme. This in itself may enable companies to meet some of target increases in bus travel. Indeed, it is possible that some local authority targets may be met by an increase in off-peak concessionary travel alone obviating a need to include consideration of additional peak hour demand.
• the biggest constraint on the ability of bus operators to further increase capacity is the ability to recruit and, more particularly, retain sufficient bus drivers. This problem is most acute in Glasgow and Edinburgh and is mainly due to working conditions rather than pay.
• bus operators have had no active involvement in setting targets for increased bus usage nor any detailed discussions about how such targets might be achieved.
• operators are normally greatly encouraged by schemes which are promoted by local authorities to improve bus transport and are often prepared to make financial contributions.
• bus operators would like to see more bus priority measures, perhaps with greater emphasis on priorities at signals and junctions.

18. In the rail industry, committed new rolling stock should solve much of the existing overcrowding and create spare capacity to cope with growth, together with an ability to cope better with service disruption (e.g. longer peak trains and longer terminus turnround times for the Edinburgh to Glasgow shuttle). To ensure sufficient capacity across all parts of the existing rail network to meet targets, some additional train lengthening, requiring further rolling stock, may be required.

19. In a very few instances, where train lengthening is not currently an option to provide additional capacity, other measures such as platform lengthening or the creation of additional train paths may be required to allow routes to fully meet the target growth. The main concern in the rail industry appears to be the creation of a more robust timetable, requiring less intensive utilisation in terms of both the infrastructure and the rolling stock. Moves to create greater robustness in certain areas are already planned when the new ScotRail rolling stock is introduced.

20. In aggregate form, it appears that the rail network will have the ability to cope with target growth across Scotland with little difficulty - the main concern, though, is perhaps the commitment that no ScotRail passenger should have to stand for more than 10 minutes. Day to day variations in demand, together with unpredictable service disruption, make it very difficult to so precisely match supply and demand. In addition, providing additional capacity at the height of the peak would be expected simply to encourage more trip-making at this time and not to reduce overcrowding levels.

21. Should the major planned new rail infrastructure projects come to fruition, significant additional demand would be expected. In most cases (e.g. Airdrie to Bathgate; Glasgow Airport rail link, Waverley line), these projects will be accompanied by additional rolling stock and new rail infrastructure. They will provide, therefore, quite significant additional capacity which will assist in meeting targets.

22. It should be borne in mind, though, that these generally positive findings for bus and rail relate solely to the physical abilities of public transport to cater for the target patronage increases. To encourage the additional patronage required to meet targets may in reality require more significant measures, such as enhanced service frequencies or better integration of bus and rail networks - it is unlikely that the targets will be met simply by ensuring the provision of sufficient aggregate peak period capacity.

23. While this study offers considerable reassurance that public transport should generally be able to cope with the target passenger increases, or that measures will be implemented to create necessary capacity, a number of recommendations have been made. These are to:

• develop better dialogue between policy makers and those involved in delivering public transport services
• continue to promote enforceable joint initiatives between authorities and operators, particularly in the bus industry.
• identify means by which peak travel can be spread over a longer time period, to maximise the use of available resources rather than requiring additional resources that will be little used.
• conduct further analysis to identify the practical capacity of the Scottish rail network, rather than relying on a standard reduction factor.
• identify any specific locations where the operation of longer trains cannot be catered for in practice.
• implement measures to speed up delivery of capacity enhancement in the rail industry.
• ensure that funding is available for non-commercial additional capacity requirements, should these be deemed necessary.
• develop better monitoring by the Scottish Executive, SPT and local authorities of progress towards meeting targets.