Road Accidents Scotland 2002
Commentary
1. Trends in the numbers of Road Accidents and Casualties
1.1 Main Points
Table 1 provides figures for the population of Scotland, the numbers of vehicles licensed, the total road length in Scotland, the volume of traffic on both major roads (motorways and A roads) and on all roads, the numbers of injury road accidents, the numbers of vehicles involved and the numbers of casualties. The numbers of injury road accidents were first recorded separately in 1966, while the numbers of casualties are available back to 1938. Information on the severities of the accidents, and of the injuries suffered by the casualties, is provided in Table 2. Figure 1 shows the trends since 1966 in the numbers of injury road accidents, and Figure 2 to 4 show the trends since 1950 for the numbers of casualties.
The numbers of injury road accidents have fallen in most of the past ten years. In 2002, the number of fatal accidents fell to the lowest number since the current records of their numbers began in 1970. The number of serious injury accidents in 2002 (2,669) fell by 168 to the lowest number since the records of serious accidents began in 1970. The number of "slight injury" accidents (11,373) in 2002 was 2% less than in the previous year, and also the lowest number since current records began in 1970.
The number of people killed in road accidents in Scotland in 2002 was 305, 43 (12%) less than in 2001. The 2002 figure was the lowest for more than 50 years.
There were 3,213 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2002, 194 (6%) fewer than in 2001. This was the lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950.
In 2002, 15,730 people were recorded as slightly injured. This is the lowest figure recorded since 1955, and was 421 (3%) fewer than in 2001.
The total number of casualties in 2002 was 19,248. This was 658 (3%) less than in 2001, and was the lowest figure for more than 45 years.
The reductions in the numbers of accidents and casualties in recent years are even more significant given that (for example) in 2002 the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland was about a quarter higher than in 1993 and that traffic on Scottish roads was estimated to have grown by about a sixth since 1993.
1.2 Accidents
In 1966 there were just over 23,200 injury road accidents and the annual total remained around this level until 1973. Numbers then dropped considerably in 1974 and 1975 to about 20,600. This was the time of a fuel crisis when a national speed limit of 50 mph was introduced and the volume of traffic in Great Britain fell by 3% in 1974. Accident numbers increased again in 1976 and reached a peak of nearly 23,100 in 1979.
In the early 1980s numbers began to fall, and did so particularly sharply in 1983 when the total number of injury accidents fell by 7% in a single year to 19,400, serious accidents fell by 13% to just over 6,400, and fatal accidents fell by 11% to 568. The year 1983 was when the 1981 Transport Act came into force and changed the law relating to drink driving, with the introduction of evidential breath testing. Compulsory front seat belt wearing and new procedures for licensing learner motor cyclists were also introduced in 1983. After 1983 the total number of injury accidents increased again to over 20,600 in 1985, and the number of serious accidents rose to just over 6,500 while fatal accidents continued to fall.
By 1987 the total number of injury accidents had fallen to under 18,700, but in 1989 it was up again to just over 20,600. 1989 was the most recent peak in the total number of injury accidents. Since 1989, the total number of injury accidents has fallen in 10 out of 13 years, and in 2002 it was at the lowest level ever recorded. The 2002 figure of 14,317 was 3% less than in 2001.
Since the late 1980s, the number of fatal accidents has fallen considerably from 517 in 1987 to 275 in 2002. For serious accidents, the trend has also been downwards. The number of serious accidents has fallen from (for example) 5,814 in 1989 to 2,669 in 2002, the lowest number ever recorded. The numbers of slight accidents have not changed as much over the years: while sometimes rising and sometimes falling, they remained between 12,000 and 15,000 throughout the period from 1970 to 1998. The most recent "peak" level was 14,443 in 1990. However, they fell below 12,000 in 1999, and the 2002 figure of 11,373 was the lowest since slight accident numbers were first recorded in 1970.
1.3 Casualties
As the numbers of accidents have fallen, so have the numbers of casualties. Therefore, this section does not repeat the previous section's detailed analysis of how the numbers have changed.
Numbers killed
The number of people killed in road accidents in Scotland in 2002 was 305. This was the lowest figure for more than 50 years. With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978, and for most of that period the figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. Since then, the numbers appear to have been fluctuating around a less pronounced downwards trend. The number in 2002 was 13% below the average for the previous five years (349).
Numbers seriously injured
There were 3,213 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2002: 194 (6%) fewer than in 2001. The 2002 figure is the lowest number since the current records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. The long term trend shows that the number of serious casualties peaked in the early 1970's at around 10,000 and has generally been falling since the early 1980's. However, there has been some fluctuation around the long-term downwards trend, and there appeared to be a levelling-off when the figures for 1996, 1997 and 1998 were all around 4,050. But the number of people seriously injured in 2002 was about 840 below that level, so it appears that the downward trend has resumed.
Numbers slightly injured
There were 15,730 people recorded as slightly injured in 2002: 421 (3%) fewer than in 2001, and the lowest number since 1955. Between 1970 and 1990, the figures fluctuated in a range which was broadly 17,000 to 21,000. The fall between 1990 and 1995 in the number of people with slight injuries, followed by an apparent levelling-off at around 17-18,000 in each of the years from 1996 to 1999, could have been a continuation of that pattern. However, the figures for 2000, 2001 and 2002 were all below the bottom of that range and are suggesting a downward trend.
Total numbers of casualties
The total number of casualties (of all severities) in 2002 was 19,248, 658 (3%) fewer than in 2001. This represented the lowest number of casualties since 1954. Between about 1970 and 1990, the figures appeared to fluctuate greatly about a general downward trend. Subsequently, the total number of casualties fell markedly from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in both 1989 and 1990), before appearing to level off: the figures for each of the years from 1993 to 1998 were all within about 600 (3%) of the average of around 22,330 for those six years. However, as the totals for 1999 to 2002 were all under 21,100, it appears that the downward trend has resumed.
Government targets for reductions in the numbers of road accident casualties.
In 1987 the Government adopted a target to reduce road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 annual average by the year 2000. The number of people killed on the roads in Scotland in 2000 was 49% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction by the year 2000 was exceeded for fatalities. For seriously injured casualties, the 2000 figure was 57% below the 1981-85 average, so the target was bettered for seriously injured casualties. However, the figure of 16,615 slight casualties in 2000 was only 9% below the 1981-85 average and so the target of a one-third reduction was not achieved for slight casualties. And, the total number of casualties (of all severities) in 2000 was 24% below the 1981-85 average, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction in the total number of casualties was not met.
In March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. A separate section on the casualty reduction targets for 2010 (which appears after this Commentary) provides statistics related to these targets, plus a selection of key points. It contains charts and tables for each of the three targets showing the main trends in casualty numbers in comparison to the 1994-98 baseline averages, and to the numbers that might be expected in each year if the targets were to be achieved by means of a constant percentage reduction in each year.