measuring Scotland's progress towards A SMART, SUCCESSFUL SCOTLAND
choosing to live and work in Scotland
LEAD INDICATOR
9A - NET MIGRATION (WORKING AGE) AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION
Why this measure?
Net migration measures the difference between how many people enter and leave a country in any one year. A positive measure indicates that people find Scotland an attractive economic location and living environment.
How does Scotland perform?
Net migration as a percentage of the population (1993-1997)
In a 27-country OECD sample, Scotland is in the fourth quartile along with Iceland and Ireland. Luxembourg leads the first quartile. The data were obtained from the average net-migration figures for the period 1993-1997, the last year available for OECD countries, for the total population as working-age statistics were unavailable. There is evidence to suggest that in the recent past Scotland's position has improved from being a country of historical net out-migration to one of, on average, net migration balance. There was positive net-migration during the late 1980s and early 1990s. This then reversed during the mid-1990s before returning to net in-migration in the late 1990s. Ireland too had volatility in migration rates with net out-migration in the early 1990s being reversed to net in-migration in the mid to late 1990s.
What does this mean for Scotland?
The data show that more people are leaving Scotland than entering, though only just, and significantly less than the historical pattern. This will generally mean skills deficiencies will develop as the most economically skilled individuals are normally the most mobile. It must be borne in mind that people are particularly mobile in the unitary labour market of the UK and that small economic differences are more likely to have larger migration effects than would be the case between separate countries.
9B - IN-MIGRATION (WORKING AGE)
Why this measure?
In-migration serves as an indicator of the attractiveness of Scotland as a place to live and work. The in-migration figures will include new entrants to Scotland as well as Scots who return to Scotland. When individuals enter Scotland for the first time, or return after a period away, they bring new skills and abilities to the workforce.
How does Scotland perform?
Working age in-migration (1991-2001)
International data are not available for this measure so, instead, figures for in-migration of working-age individuals - 15-64 for men and 15-59 for women - were used. Over the past 10 years the number of people moving to Scotland has been between 40,000-49,000 per year, although the trend has been slightly downwards.
What does this mean for Scotland?
In-migration is, of course, a gross migration figure - with the net migration figure showing a general, though slight, outflow of individuals for Scotland from 1993-97. In-migration can be broken down further into different economic groups to indicate what skills can be expected will be brought to the Scottish economy. The in-migration figures presented do not make that distinction, though evidence shows that it is younger individuals who are the most likely to move to Scotland, but equally they are the group most likely to move away.
9C - WORKING AGE POPULATION CHANGE IN EACH LOCAL ENTERPRISE COMPANY AREA
Why this measure?
The previous measures have shown how Scotland will benefit from in-migration. This measure seeks to show how those benefits are spread across Scotland. The figures show the popularity of each area as one in which to live and work.
How does Scotland perform?
Working-age population change by council area (1981-2001)
The figures given are for council areas rather than LECs as figures on the basis of LECs were not available. The figures displayed are for the years 1981-2001. They show that the largest increases in population took place, principally, in the east of Scotland, with population declining in large areas of west-central and western Scotland. Over the 20-year period measured Scotland's working-age population increased marginally.
What does this mean for Scotland?
Scotland's population is falling, though over the longer time scale of this measure it can be seen to rise. There are a number of reasons why population may decline in some areas and rise in others: individuals may be relocating from one council area to another or moving out of Scotland altogether. Also, some areas have a greater number of inhabitants approaching retirement age than others and these individuals can be counted as being part of the working age population one year, but not in the next. This would be reflected as a decrease in working-age population even though the people themselves have not moved. Whatever the causes, a reduction in working-age population can lead to skill shortages and to a weakening of the social fabric of communities.