ROAD ACCIDENTS SCOTLAND 2001
Commentary
1. Trends in the numbers of Road Accidents and Casualties
1.1 Main Points
Table 1 provides figures for the population of Scotland, the numbers of vehicles licensed, the total road length in Scotland, the volume of traffic on both major roads (motorways and A roads) and on all roads, the numbers of injury road accidents, the numbers of vehicles involved and the numbers of casualties. The numbers of injury road accidents were first recorded separately in 1966, while the numbers of casualties are available back to 1938. Information on the severities of the accidents, and of the injuries suffered by the casualties, is provided in Table 2. The trends since 1966 in the numbers of injury road accidents and the numbers of casualties are illustrated in Figures 1 and 2.
Although the numbers of injury road accidents have fallen in most of the past ten years, in 2001, the number of fatal accidents increased by 11 to 308. However, this was still the third lowest number of fatal accidents since the current records of their numbers began in 1970. The number of serious injury accidents in 2001 (2,836) fell by 169 to the lowest number since the records of serious accidents began in 1970. The number of "slight injury" accidents (11,567) in 2001 was 2% less than in the previous year, and also the lowest number since current records began.
The number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 2001 was 347, 21 (6%) more than in 2000. The 2001 figure was the third lowest for at least 50 years.
There were 3,406 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2001, 160 (4%) fewer than in 2000. This was the lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950.
In 2001, 16,141 people were recorded as slightly injured. This is the lowest figure recorded since 1957, and was 472 (3%) fewer than in 2000.
The total number of casualties in 2001 was 19,894. This was 611 (3%) less than in 2000, and was the lowest figure for more than 45 years.
The reductions in the numbers of accidents and casualties since 1989 are even more significant given that the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland in 2001 was about a third higher than in 1989 and that traffic on major roads in Scotland in 2001 was estimated to have grown by approaching a fifth since 1989.
1.2 Accidents
In 1966 there were just over 23,200 injury road accidents and the annual total remained around this level until 1973. Numbers then dropped considerably in 1974 and 1975 to about 20,600. This was the time of a fuel crisis when a national speed limit of 50 mph was introduced and the volume of traffic in Great Britain fell by 3% in 1974. Accident numbers increased again in 1976 and reached a peak of nearly 23,100 in 1979.
In the early 1980s numbers began to fall, and did so particularly sharply in 1983 when the total number of injury accidents fell by 7% in a single year to 19,400, serious accidents fell by 13% to just over 6,400, and fatal accidents fell by 11% to 568. The year 1983 was when the 1981 Transport Act came into force and changed the law relating to drink driving, with the introduction of evidential breath testing. Compulsory front seat belt wearing and new procedures for licensing learner motor cyclists were also introduced in 1983. After 1983 the total number of injury accidents increased again to over 20,600 in 1985, and the number of serious accidents rose to just over 6,500 while fatal accidents continued to fall.
By 1987 the total number of injury accidents had fallen to under 18,700, but in 1989 it was up again to just over 20,600. 1989 was the most recent peak in the total number of injury accidents. Since 1989, the total number of injury accidents has fallen in 10 out of 12 years, and in 2001 it was at the lowest level ever recorded. The 2001 figure of 14,711 was 3% less than in 2000.
Since the late 1980s, the number of fatal accidents has fallen considerably from 517 in 1987 to 285 in 1999, which was the lowest ever recorded. The number increased to 308 in 2001. For serious accidents, the trend has also been downwards. The number of serious accidents has fallen from (for example) 5,814 in 1989 to 2,836 in 2001, the lowest number ever recorded. The numbers of slight accidents have not changed as much over the years: while sometimes rising and sometimes falling, they have remained between about 12,000 and 15,000 since 1970. The most recent "peak" level was 14,444 in 1990. The 2001 figure of 11,567 was the lowest since slight accident numbers were first recorded in 1970.
1.3 Casualties
As the numbers of accidents have fallen, so have the numbers of casualties. Therefore, this section does not repeat the previous section's detailed analysis of how the numbers have changed.
Numbers fatally injured
The number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 2001 was 347. This was the third lowest figure since the current records began over 50 years ago. With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978, and for most of that period the figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. Since then, the numbers appear to have been fluctuating around a less pronounced downwards trend. Although there was a rise in the latest year, the number in 2001 was 1% below the average for the previous five years (351).
Numbers seriously injured
There were 3,406 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2001: 160 (4%) fewer than in 2000. The 2001 figure is the lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. The long term trend shows that the number of serious casualties peaked in the early 1970's at around 10,000 and has generally been falling since the early 1980's. However, there has been some fluctuation around the long-term downwards trend, and there appeared to be a levelling-off when the figures for 1996, 1997 and 1998 were all around 4,050. But the number of people seriously injured in 2001 was about 640 below that level, so it appears that the downward trend has resumed.
Numbers slightly injured
There were 16,141 people recorded as slightly injured in 2001: 472 (3%) fewer than in 2000, and the lowest number since 1957. Between 1970 and 1990, the figures fluctuated in a range which was broadly 17,000 to 21,000. The fall between 1990 and 1995 in the number of people with slight injuries, followed by an apparent levelling-off at around 17-18,000 in each of the years from 1996 to 1999, could have been a continuation of that pattern. However, the figures for 2000 and 2001 were below the bottom of that range and are suggesting a downward trend.
Total numbers of casualties
The total number of casualties (of all severities) in 2001 was 19,894, 611 (3%) fewer than in 2000. This represented the lowest number of casualties since 1954. Between about 1970 and 1990, the figures appeared to fluctuate greatly about a general downward trend. Subsequently, the total number of casualties fell markedly from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in both 1989 and 1990), before appearing to level off: the figures for each of the years from 1993 to 1998 were all within 600 (3%) of the average of 22,330 for those six years. However, as the totals for 1999 to 2001 were all under 21,000, it appears that the downward trend may have resumed.
Government targets for reductions in the numbers of road accident casualties.
In 1987 the Government adopted a target to reduce road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 annual average by the year 2000. The number of people killed on the roads in Scotland in 2000 was 49% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction by the year 2000 was exceeded for fatalities. For seriously injured casualties, the 2000 figure was 57% below the 1981-85 average, so the target was bettered for seriously injured casualties. However, the figure of 16,613 slight casualties in 2000 was only 9% below the 1981-85 average and so the target of a one-third reduction was not achieved for slight casualties. And, the total number of casualties (of all severities) in 2000 was 24% below the 1981-85 average, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction in the total number of casualties was not met.
In March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. A separate section on the casualty reduction targets for 2010 (which appears after this Commentary) provides statistics related to these targets, plus a selection of key points. It contains charts and tables for each of the three targets showing the main trends in casualty numbers in comparison to the 1994-98 baseline averages, and to the numbers that might be expected in each year if the targets were to be achieved by means of a constant percentage reduction in each year.
2. Accidents
2.1 Accidents by road type and severity( see Table 4)
Table 4 shows separate figures for trunk roads and for local authority roads. Trunk roads accounted for only small proportions of the total numbers of accidents in 2001: very roughly, just over a quarter of fatal accidents, almost a fifth of the total of fatal and serious accidents, and around a seventh of all accidents. The trunk road network's shares of accident numbers in previous years were broadly similar.
When looking at changes over time in the numbers of accidents by type of road, one must remember that the changes for different types of road will be affected by the transfer of traffic away from some roads by the opening of city and town bypasses, and by the construction of new roads with higher average traffic volumes. Therefore, such figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of different types of road.
Several changes were made to the trunk road network with effect from 1st April 1996. Annex E refers to them, and explains why the 1994-98 averages for trunk roads and for local authority major roads have been calculated by counting accidents which occurred prior to 1st April 1996 on the basis of whether they occurred on roads which were part of the "post- 1 April 1996" trunk road network.
2.2 Accident rates( see Table 5)
Accident rates showing the number of accidents per 100 million vehicle kilometres are contained in parts B and C of table 5. These are calculated by dividing the numbers of accidents on each type of road by the estimated volumes of traffic on those roads, which were provided by the Department for Transport. As there are no reliable traffic estimates of the total volume of traffic on minor roads (B, C and unclassified roads) prior to 1998, accident rates for minor roads are only available for 1998 onwards.
Accident rates on major roads (Motorways and A roads) have fallen markedly since the early 1990s. The fatal accident rate has dropped from 1.2 per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 1992 to 0.8 in 2001; the "fatal and serious" accident rate fell from 10.6 to 6.4; and the overall accident rate (all severities) reduced from 38.0 per 100 million vehicle kilometres to 26.9. Motorways had consistently lower accident rates than A roads, and minor roads (taken together as a group) tend to have higher accident rates than major roads. Accident rates tend to be higher for "built-up" roads (roads with speed limits of up to 40mph) than for "non built-up" roads (ones with higher speed limits).
Estimates for the total volume of traffic by police force area are only available for "major" roads. Part C of the table shows that accident rates on major roads vary considerably by police area. Some of this variation may be attributed to the distribution of traffic by road type within individual areas. The accident rates for trunk roads were calculated by dividing the total number of accidents which occurred in each period on the roads which formed the trunk road network by the total of the estimated volumes of traffic in the same period on the trunk road network. The rates for local authority major roads were calculated in a similar way. Annex E explains why the traffic figures for 1994 and 1995 which were used in the calculation of the 1994-98 averages are on a different basis from the accident numbers for those years.
2.3 Accidents by month by road type( see Table 6)
The numbers of injury accidents over the years 1997-2001 were fairly evenly spread throughout the year, with a minor peak in November, which was 13% above the average monthly number of accidents. Fatal and serious accidents (taken together) were similarly well spread across the months, and their minor peak, which occurred in August, was 14% above the monthly average. (To allow more equitable comparisons the months are standardised to 30 days.)
On average, there were 26 fatal accidents per month in the years 1997 to 2001. The number did not vary greatly between the months: the lowest average was 20, and the highest was 30.
2.4 Accidents by light condition and road surface condition( see Table 7)
The severity of accidents is associated with the light and road surface conditions, and also with whether the accident occurs on a built-up road or on a non built-up road. Presumably, because of the higher average speeds on non built-up roads, severity rates are higher on non built-up roads than on built-up roads. And presumably, because of poorer visibility, severity rates are higher in darkness than in daylight. For example, taking the annual averages for 1997-2001, 4.9% of injury road accidents on non built-up roads in darkness (81 out of 1,637) resulted in one (or more) deaths compared with 1.5% of accidents on built-up roads in darkness (43 out of 2,807) and 3.5% of accidents on non built-up roads in daylight (137 out of 3,876). Similarly, the percentage of accidents classified as either fatal or serious is higher for non built-up roads in darkness than for either built-up roads in darkness or non built-up roads in daylight.
Severity rates did not appear to be higher when the road surface condition was wet, damp or flooded, or affected by snow, frost or ice. For example, taking the annual averages for 1997 to 2001, the percentage of accidents on non built-up roads classified as fatal or serious when the road surface condition was dry was 31.8% (786 out of 2,473) compared with 27.2% (705 out of 2,595) when the surface was wet and 19.7% (83 out of 421) when it was affected by snow, frost or ice.
3. Motorists, breath testing and drink-driving
3.1 Car driver accident rates( see Table 18)
All car drivers involved in injury accidents are included in this table, whether they were injured or not, on the basis of whatever information is known about their ages and their sex. For example, someone whose sex was known, but whose age was not known, will be included in the "all ages" total for the appropriate sex. The grand total includes those for whom neither the age nor the sex was known.
As the car driver accident rates that are shown for each sex and age group are on a "per head of population" basis, rather than being based upon the numbers of driving licence holders or upon the distance driven, they can provide only a general indication of the relative accident rates for each group. The statistics do not provide a measure of the relative risk of each group as car drivers, because they do not take account of the differing levels of car driving by each group.
Car driver accident rates per head of population vary markedly by age and sex. The peak occurs for males in the 17-22 age group, with a rate of 10.4 per thousand population in 2001. This rate is more than double that for females of the same age (4.7per thousand in 2001), and is almost double the rate for males aged 30-59 (5.8 per thousand in 2001).
The overall male car driver accident rate in 2001 (5.9 per thousand) was less than in the previous year, and this was the case for each group apart from the 23-29 age group, for whom the rate increased from 8.2 to 8.5 per thousand population.. The overall female car driver accident rate in 2001 (3.0 per thousand) was a reduction on the previous year although in the 17-22 age group there was an increase from 4.4 to 4.7 per thousand population.
Between 1991 and 2001, the male car driver accident rate fell from 8.1 to 5.9 per thousand population, whereas the female car driver accident rate remained around 3.0 per thousand population (with some year-to-year fluctuations). As a result, the overall, ratio of male to female car driver accident rates has fallen from 2.7: 1 for 1991 to 2.0: 1 in 2001.
3.2 Breath testing of drivers(see Tables 19, 20 and 21)
These tables cover all motorists who were known to be involved in injury road accidents (the figures do not include, for example, those involved in "hit and run" accidents who were not traced). For these tables, a motorist is defined as the driver or the rider of a motor vehicle, including (e.g.) a motorcyclist.
In 2001, 64% of motorists involved in accidents were asked for a breath test (the percentage varied among the police forces, from about 52% to around 85%). The breath test proved positive (or the motorist refused to take the test) for 3.3% of those drivers breathalysed. This represented 2.1% of the total number of motorists involved (including those who were not asked for a breath test). While these percentages have not changed much in the past five years, there have been reductions in both the numbers and the proportion of "drink drivers": the number of "positive / refused breath test" cases fell from 587in 1997 to 507in 2001, and from 2.2% to 2.1% as a percentage of all motorists involved in accidents.
Tables 20 and 21 show the figures for each time of day on different days of the week (Table 20 gives the averages for 1997 to 2001), and for a number of years (Table 21). In 2001, 46% of the "positive / refused" cases occurred between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m.: 99 between 9 p.m. and midnight, plus 133 between midnight and 3 a.m., out of a total of 507. Between midnight and 6 a.m., the number of "positive / refused" cases, expressed as a percentage of motorists involved in accidents, varied depending upon the day of the week, from 9.5% (the average for 3 a.m. to 6 a.m. for Mondays to Thursdays) to 20.7% (3 a.m. to 6 a.m. on Sundays), using 1997 to 2001 averages and was much higher than at other times of the day. The period from 9 p.m. to midnight had the second highest number of "positive / refused" cases, but the equivalent percentages were not as high (varying between about 4% and 8%), because between 9 p.m. and midnight there were many more accidents than between midnight and 3 a.m.
3.3 Drink-drive accidents and casualties( see Table 22)
Table 22 shows the estimates (made by the Department for Transport) of the numbers of injury road accidents involving illegal alcohol levels. They are higher than the number of drivers with positive breath test results (or who refused to take the breath test) because they include allowances for the numbers of cases where drivers were not breath tested because of the severity of their injuries, or because they left the scene of the accident. Information about the blood alcohol levels of road users who died within 12 hours of being injured in a road accident is supplied by the Procurators Fiscal.
The estimates show that the numbers of drink-drive accidents and casualties fell by 25% and 28% respectively between 1990 and 2000 (the latest year for which estimates are available): from 1,040 to 780 (accidents) and from 1,600 to 1,150 (casualties). While fluctuating from year to year, the number of people killed as a result of drink-drive accidents is estimated to have fallen from about 80 in 1990 to around 40 in 2000. The number of serious casualties is estimated to have dropped by almost a half (from roughly 440 in 1990 to some 240 in 2000).
4. Casualties
4.1 Casualties by type of road( see Table 23)
In 2001, "non built-up" roads accounted for two-fifths of the total number of casualties (41%: 8,207 out of 19,894). However, presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads than elsewhere, they accounted for almost three quarters of fatal injuries (73%: 252 out of 347) and for over half of the total number of fatal and serious injuries combined (53%: 1,991 out of 3,753).
Compared with 1991, the fall in the total number of casualties has been greater for built-up roads (25%) than elsewhere (16%), and the difference between the two types of road is even greater for the numbers fatally injured (down by 50% for built-up roads compared with 16% elsewhere). However, over the years, some traffic will have been transferred away from built-up roads by the opening of city and town bypasses, and by the construction of non built-up roads with higher average traffic volumes. Therefore, these figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of "built-up" and "non built-up" roads.
4.2 Casualties by mode of transport( see Table 23)
A total of 12,281 car users were injured in road accidents in 2001, representing 62% of all casualties. Of these car users, 194 died. There were 3,404 pedestrian casualties (17% of the total), of whom 75 died, 917 pedal cycle casualties ( 5% of the total), of whom 10 died, and 1,174 motorcycle casualties (6% of the total), of whom 49 died. Because of the numbers of car user, pedestrian, pedal cyclist and motor cyclist casualties, the figures for each of these four groups of road users are the subject of separate sections, which follow this one, and are followed by a section on child casualties, which gives details of their modes of transport.
Together, all the modes of transport other than the four mentioned above accounted for 2,117 casualties in 2001 (11% of the total), and for smaller percentages of the numbers of fatalities and serious injuries. These included 823 bus and coach users injured in 2001, of whom 62 suffered serious injuries (none died) - these low proportions presumably being due to the greater protection of their passengers by buses and coaches. There were also 412 casualties who were travelling in light goods vehicles, 306 users of taxis, 313 people in heavy goods vehicles, 94 users of minibuses and 169 people with another means of transport.
4.3 Car user casualties
A total of 12,281 car users were injured in road accidents in 2001, representing 62% of all casualties. Of these people, a total of 1,949 were either fatally or seriously injured, 194 of whom died. Non built-up roads accounted for a little over half of all car user casualties (53%: 6,554 out of 12,281). Presumably because average speeds are higher on non-built up roads, they accounted for much higher percentages of the total numbers of car users who were fatally injured (84%: 162 out of 194) or were fatally or seriously injured (72%: 1,410 out of 1,949). ( See Table 23)
Although the number of car user fatalities in 2001 was 7% more than the 2000 figure, the number who were fatally or seriously injured fell by 2% and in the total number of casualties of all severities was down by 3%. Since 1991, fatal casualties have dropped by 19%, and there have been falls of 33% in the number who were fatally or seriously injured and of 12% in the total number of car user casualties. ( See table 23)
Looking at annual averages over the years 1997-2001 the fatal and serious casualty rate for 16-22 year old car users was 1.18 per thousand population. This was much higher than the rate for car users in the older age groups, which varied from 0.3 to 0.7 per thousand population . ( See Table 32)
On average, over the years 1997-2001, about three-quarters of car user fatalities occurred on roads with a speed limit of 60mph. Such roads accounted for about two thirds of those car users who were fatally or seriously injured, but for less than half of the total number of car user casualties (of all severities). ( See Table 33)
Adult car users
On weekdays, the peak time for adult car user casualties was from 4pm to 6pm. The 5pm to 6pm average of 760 (the annual average for the years 1997-2001) was 19% higher than the average of 638 in the morning 8am to 9am peak. ( See Table 28)
Adult car user casualties varied by month, with fewer in the period between March and July (inclusive) and more towards the beginning and end of the year. The peak month was November, which had 33% more adult car user casualties than the lowest month, April (annual averages over the years 1997-2001; months standardised to 30 days). ( See Table 29)
Friday had the peak numbers of adult car user casualties over the years 1997-2001 with 13% more than the average daily number of adult car user casualties. ( See Table 30)
4.4 Pedestrian casualties
There were 3,404 pedestrian casualties in 2001: 17% of all casualties. Of these, 917 were fatally or seriously injured (75 died). Presumably because of the greater vulnerability of pedestrians, a higher proportion (22%) of the total number of people who were fatally or seriously injured were pedestrians. In addition, 27% of pedestrian casualties were fatally or seriously injured (917 out of 3,404) compared with 19% of all casualties (3,753 out of 19,894). About 95% of pedestrian casualties occurred on built-up roads (3,245 out of 3,404). Perhaps because of higher average speeds on non built-up roads, 52% of the pedestrian casualties on such roads were serious injuries or fatalities (83 out of 159) compared with 26% on built-up roads (834 out of 3,245). ( See Table 23)
The number of pedestrian casualties in 2001 was 5% less than in 2000, and the number of pedestrian fatalities and serious injuries in 2001 was 8% less than 2000 (although the number of fatalities rose by 3). Since 1991, the number of pedestrian fatalities has fallen by 57%, the number who were fatally or seriously injured has dropped by 53%, and there has been a 38% reduction in the total number of pedestrian casualties. Looking at the annual average for the period 1997 to 2001, the pedestrian fatality rate was higher for those aged 70+ (0.04 per thousand population) than for any other age-group. However, the 12-15 age-group had the highest 'fatal and serious' and 'all severities' pedestrian casualty rates (0.54 and 2.11 per thousand population, respectively). The corresponding casualty rates for the 5-11 age-group were only slightly lower. ( See Table 32)
The overall pedestrian 'all severities' casualty rate for males was 0.93 per thousand population, compared with 0.57 per thousand for females, using the averages for the period 1997 to 2001. ( See Table 34)
Adult pedestrian casualties
On average, in the period 1997 to 2001, on weekdays, the peak time for adult pedestrian casualties was from 4pm to 6pm; at weekends it was from midnight to 2am. ( See Table 28)
December was the peak month for adult pedestrian casualties, with 48% more than the monthly average. Adult pedestrian casualties in the four "winter" months, November to February, were 27% more than the monthly average (annual averages over the years 1997-2001; months standardised to 30 days). ( See Table 29)
Friday has the highest number of adult pedestrian casualties; 22% more than the daily average over the period 1997 to 2001. ( See Table 30)
In 2001, 9% of adult pedestrian casualties were recorded as crossing the road within 50 metres of a pedestrian crossing, 0.4% were within the "zig-zag" around the crossing, and 8% were recorded as being on a pedestrian crossing. ( See Table 35)
4.5 Pedal Cycle Casualties
There were 917 pedal cycle casualties in 2001, 4% more than the previous year.. The combined total of fatal and serious pedal cycle casualties in 2001 was 171, 3% less than in 2000. There were 10 pedal cycle fatalities in 2001, two fewer than in 2000. Since 1991 there has been a 31% reduction in all pedal cycle casualties, the number who were injured fatally or seriously has fallen by 44%, and the number of fatalities has fluctuated between 5 and 18. ( see table 23)
86% of pedal cycle casualties in 2001 were on built-up roads. ( See Table 23)
In term of the averages for the period 1997 to 2001, the pedal cycle casualty rate per head of population was highest for those aged 12-15 (0.58 per thousand population). The other age groups with above-average casualty rates were: 5-11, 16-22, 23-29 and 30-39. Of course, it must be remembered that, as noted earlier, "per capita" casualty rates do not provide a measure of the relative risk, because they do not take account of the levels of usage of (in this case) pedal cycles. ( See Table 32)
Adult pedal cycle casualties
Using the averages for the period 1997 to 2001, on weekdays, the peak numbers of adult pedal cycle casualties were from 4pm to 6pm and from 7 am to 9 am. At weekends the numbers were smaller, and there was no clear peak. ( See Table 28)
The peak month of the year for adult pedal cycle casualties was August, which was 38% more than the monthly average (1997-2001 annual averages, standardised to 30 days). ( See Table 29)
The days of the week with the peak numbers of adult pedal cycle casualties were Tuesday and Wednesday, 25% higher than the daily average, over the years 1997-2001. There were substantially fewer adult pedal cycle casualties on Saturday and Sunday, with 35% and 47% less than the daily average respectively. ( See Table 30)
4.6 Motorcyclist casualties
A total of 1,174 motorcyclists were injured in road accidents in 2001, representing 6% of all casualties. Of these, 453 were either fatally or seriously injured, of whom 49 died. About half of all motorcyclist casualties occurred on non built-up roads but (presumably because of their higher average speeds) such roads accounted for almost two-thirds of those injured fatally or seriously, and six-sevenths of those killed. ( See table 23)
The number of motorcyclist casualties in 2001 was 4% more than in the previous year. However, the number injured fatally or seriously fell by 4% - but there was a rise of nine in the number who were killed. Over the period since 1991, the total number of motorcyclist casualties at first fell (from 1,405 on 1991 to 850 in 1996) before rising in each of the latest five years. The figure in 2001 was 16% fewer than ten years earlier, and the number of fatally or seriously injured was 7% lower than in 1991. However, 10 more motorcyclists died in 2001 than in 1991. ( See Table 23)
On average, over the years 1997 to 2001, the motorcyclist casualty rate was highest for the 23-29 year old age group (0.48 per thousand population), closely followed by the 16-22 and 30-39 age groups (both 0.45 per thousand population). Other age-groups had much smaller casualty rates. ( See Table 32)
Looking at the averages for the period 1997 to 2001, the peak time of day for motorcyclist casualties was 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. on weekdays ( See Table 28), the peak month of the year was August, with relatively high numbers in the other months from May to September ( See Table 29) and there were more casualties on Sundays than on any of the other days ( See Table 30)
4.7 Child casualties
There were 2,956 child casualties in 2001, representing over a seventh of the total number of casualties of all ages (15%: 2,956 out of 19,894). Of the child casualties, 543 were fatalities or serious injuries, of whom 20 died ( See Table 24).
The number of child fatalities in 2001 was one fewer than in 2000 and there were falls of 3% and 1% respectively in the number of children killed or seriously injured and in the total number of child casualties. Since 1997, the number of child fatalities has fallen by six, there has been a reduction of 27% in child fatal and serious casualties, and a 22% fall in the total number of child casualties. ( See Table 25)
In terms of the averages for the period 1997 to 2001, on weekdays, the peak time for child casualties was from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m., with 28% of all weekday casualties in those two hours. A further 28% occurred in the three hours between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m.. There was a smaller peak in the morning, between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m.. There was no real clear peak at weekends: the numbers of casualties were very broadly the same each hour from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m.. ( See Table 27)
August was the peak month for child casualties, with 19% more than in an average month. May had 13% more than an average month, and July 7% more (1997-2001 annual averages, standardised to 30 days). ( See Table 29)
Using the averages for 1997 to 2001, Friday was the peak day of the week for child casualties, with 19% more than an average day. Sunday had 18% fewer than an average day. ( See Table 30)
Child casualties by mode of transport
In 2001, there were 1,486 child pedestrian casualties. They accounted for 44% of all pedestrian casualties of all ages (1,486 out of 3,404). Of the child pedestrian casualties, 353 were fatalities or serious injuries (14 died). ( See Table 25)
There were 309 child pedal cycle casualties in 2001 (34% of the total of 917 pedal cycle casualties of all ages). The child pedal cycle casualties included 56 fatalities and serious injuries, of whom 4 died. ( See Table 25)
In 2001, there were 948 child casualties in cars, 8% of the total number of car user casualties of all ages (948 out of 12,281). Of the child casualties in cars, 109 were fatalities or serious injuries (2 died). ( See Table 25)
Child casualty rates (per head of population)
Children's casualty rates (per head of population) increase with age: for children aged 0-4 the rate was 1.68 per thousand population (the average for the period 1997 to 2001), whereas it was 3.66 per thousand for those aged 5-11 and for the 12-15 age group it was 4.45 per thousand. The pedestrian casualty rate for younger children (0-4 years) was only about a third of those for 5-11 and 12-15 year olds. ( See Table 32)
The pedestrian casualty rate for boys in the 5-11 age group was almost twice that for girls, but for 12-15 year olds the gap was less marked. The difference between the sexes was even more pronounced in the case of the "driver or rider" casualty rates, particularly for the 12-15 age group. ( See Table 34)
Child pedestrian casualty rates in 2001 for fatal and serious injuries (combined) and for all severities, at 0.42 and 1.64 per thousand child population respectively, were roughly double the corresponding rates for pedestrian casualties of all ages. ( See Table 32)
5. Comparisons of Scottish figures against those of other countries
5.1 Casualty rates: against England & Wales(see Tables A to D)
Historically, the "fatal" and "fatal and serious (combined)" casualty rates per head of population in Scotland have been above those for England & Wales, whereas the "all severities" casualty rate has been lower in Scotland than in England & Wales. In 2001, Scotland's casualty rates were 15% higher (fatal), 5% higher (fatal and serious) and 30% lower (all severities). In all three cases, this represented an improvement in the position in Scotland relative to that in England & Wales compared with the position in 1994-98.
For years, the Scottish child casualty rates per head of population have been higher than those of England & Wales for "fatal" and "fatal and serious (combined)" and slightly lower for "all severities". In 2001, the Scottish rates were 9% higher (fatal), 32% higher (fatal and serious) and 10% lower (all severities). In all these cases, this represented an improvement in Scotland's figures relative to England & Wales compared with the 1994-98 average.
It should be noted that the ratio of the fatality rates for Scotland and for England and Wales can fluctuate markedly from year to year, particularly for the child fatality rates due to the relatively small numbers in Scotland, (which may be subject to year-to-year changes which are large in percentage terms). Therefore subsequent paragraphs do not refer to the fatality rates for children using different modes of transport. In addition, it should be remembered that the rates for some other sub-groups may be affected by year-to-year fluctuations: for example, the numbers are relatively small for most categories of child "fatal and serious" casualties in Scotland.
The casualty rates of car users in Scotland have for many years been substantially higher than those of England & Wales for "fatal" and "fatal and serious" casualties, while for "all severities" the rate has been much lower. In 2001, Scotland's car user fatality rate was 31% higher than that of England & Wales, the "fatal and serious" (combined) rate was 17% higher, while the "all severity" car user rate was 32% lower. For child car users, the combined "fatal and serious" was 44% higher in Scotland and the "all severities" child car user casualty rate was 23% less than that of England and Wales.
In 2001, the pedestrian fatality rate per capita was 3% lower in Scotland than that for England & Wales, the "fatal and serious" (combined) rate in Scotland was 16% higher and the "all severities" rate was 6% lower. The child pedestrian casualty rates in Scotland were much higher than those for England & Wales: 37% higher ("fatal and serious" combined) and 12% higher (all severities).
The casualty rates for pedal cyclists of all ages in Scotland were substantially lower than in England & Wales in 2001 for both "fatal and serious" (combined) (30% lower); and for "all severities" (48% lower). The child pedal cycle casualty "all severities" rate was also lower in Scotland than in England & Wales. These differences may reflect the fact that, according to the National Travel Survey, on average, people in Scotland do not travel as far by bicycle as people in England and Wales.
Further information about the numbers of casualties in England and Wales, and for Great Britain as a whole, can be found in "Road Accidents Great Britain 2001", which is published by the Department for Transport.
5.2 Road deaths : international comparison 2000(see Table E and Table F)
This section compares Scotland's road death rates in 2000 with the fatality rates of some countries in Western Europe and some developed countries world-wide. The comparisons involve a total of 30 countries (including Scotland, and counting England and Wales as one country, and Northern Ireland as another country) and also figures for the European Union as a whole. The fatality rates were calculated on a "per capita" basis (the statistics given are rates per million population), and the countries were then listed in order of their fatality rates in Table E sections (a), (b) and (c). Section (d) of the table ranks countries by a set of car user fatality rates which were calculated on a "per motor vehicle" basis (the statistics given are rates per million motor vehicles).
The figures used for foreign countries were obtained in October 2002 from tables on the International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD) Web site. The tables concerned were described as having been issued in April and May 2002, so the figures given here may differ from those published elsewhere, due to revisions in the intervening period. In a few cases where "Road Accidents Great Britain 2001" (which was published in September 2002) had figures for a later year than was available from the tables on the IRTAD Web site, the "RAGB" figures were used. (N.B. where IRTAD and "RAGB" provided figures for the same year, the IRTAD figures were used.) The IRTAD Web site address of the list of tables is http://www.bast.de/htdocs/fachthemen/irtad//english/englisch.html.
In accordance with the commonly agreed international definition, most countries define a fatality as being due to a road accident if death occurs within 30 days of the accident. However, the official road accident statistics of some countries limit the fatalities to those occurring within shorter periods after the accident. The numbers of deaths, and the death rates, which appear in the IRTAD tables take account of the adjustment factors used by the Economic Commission for Europe and the European Conference of Ministers of Transport to represent standardised 30-day numbers of deaths.
In 2000, Scotland's overall road death rate of 64 per million population was the second lowest of the 30 countries surveyed, and was only 59% of the EU average (which was 108 per million population). Only England & Wales had a fatality rate which was lower than Scotland's.
However, Scotland's overall road safety position does not appear as good when the fatality rates of pedestrians are considered separately. In 2000, Scotland's pedestrian fatality rate was 14 per million population, only just below the EU average of 16. Scotland ranked eleventh of the 30 countries surveyed.
When the car user fatality rate is calculated on a per capita basis, Scotland has a low car user fatality rate (36 per million population the fifth lowest). However, it may be argued that the car user fatality rate should be calculated on "per motor vehicle" basis, in order to try to approximate better the differing levels of car use in different countries, and hence reflect differences between countries in car drivers' "exposure to risk". (Rates based on the amount of car traffic in each country would be even better, but the data required to calculate them are not available for some countries.) When car user fatality rates are calculated on a "per motor vehicle" basis, Scotland's car user fatality rate of 83 per million motor vehicles was the sixth best out of the 30 countries surveyed. The rate for England and Wales was 56 per million motor vehicles, and the EU average was 106.
The fatality rates per head of population for 28 countries (including Scotland) are shown, for each of four broad age-groups, in Table F. In this table, reflecting the availability of figures from IRTAD there are figures for the United Kingdom, but no separate figures for "England and Wales" and "Northern Ireland"; also there are no figures for the EU as a whole. In most cases, Scotland has one of the lowest rates per capita. The Scottish rate is the tenth lowest for child casualties aged 0-14, the lowest for those aged 15-24, the sixth lowest for those aged 25-64 and the second lowest for those aged 65+.