Risk Assessment and Management of Serious Violent and Sexual Offenders: A review of current issues
FOOTNOTES
1. H. Kemshall (2001) Risk Assessment and Management of Known Sexual and Violent Offenders: A review of current issues. Police Research Series 140. London: Home Office.
2. See also the Millan Committee
3. These thresholds will be further defined and subject to guidance from the Risk Management Authority.
4. Ruddle v Secretary of State for Scotland, Lanark Sheriff Court, August 1999.
5. Where a Type I prediction error is a false positive prediction, i.e. a prediction of risk that does not happen, and a Type II prediction error is a false negative prediction (a risk is not predicted but does happen.
6. OASys stands for the Offender Assessment System and is a prison-probation assessment tool for the risk of recidivism which uses both reconviction predictors and criminogenic needs, combined with a risk of harm assessment. OASys is currently the subject of a pilot evaluation.
7. Note however the Genderau et al (1996) claimed they could predict general recidivism using dynamic variables as well static indicators.
8. David Thornton is currently developing the 'Risk Matrix 2000' to replace the SACJ.
9. An actuarial prediction free from base rate limitations and clinical bias against Type I and Type II prediction errors. (Mossman, 1994: 783).
10. In other words, the accuracy of probability for the sample as a whole was 62 per cent
11. The 'Hare P Scan' is being developed for work with Probation in Canada. Hare, R. D. and Herve, H. (1999) The Hare P-Scan. Toronto, ON: Multi-Health Systems.
12. This text also provides more detailed information on the goals and elements of sex offender programmes (SWSIS, 1997).
13. Breach of a Sex Offender Order can carry up to a five year custodial penalty upon indictment.
14. Offenders can only be required not to do something - for example, offenders might be required not to visit a certain area, or not to speak to certain people.
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