Scottish Government

THE 2000 SCOTTISH CRIME SURVEY: OVERVIEW REPORT

Chapter 6 The Risk of Victimisation

The SCS collects information about the characteristics of victims and non-victims, and is thus able to show how the risks of victimisation vary between different groups in the population. This information is useful as it can identify which people/ households are at most risk of certain crimes and therefore help to target crime reduction strategies. The risk levels presented in this Chapter relate to the percentage of people or households victimised once or more during the year (prevalence risks). The national average risks of victimisation are presented first - these show which crimes were the most and least common in Scotland in 1999. A discussion then follows of what we know from the Survey about the variations in the risk of crime for specific groups in society. The chapter concludes with a look at the risk of repeat victimisation for certain categories of crime, i.e. the chance of victims experiencing more than one crime of a specific type during 1999.

Average Risks

Figures from the 2000 SCS suggest that approximately one in five adults (20%) were victims in 1999 of at least one of the crimes covered by the survey; a fall from 23% in 1995. One in seven households (15%) had experienced an incident of property crime during 1999; a fall from 19% in 1995. Within this group of offences, the largest drop was for theft from a motor vehicle, which fell from 5% in 1995 to 3% 3% in 1999. There was a slight increase in the proportion of individuals who had been the victim of a violent crime, from 2.5% in 1995 to 2.8% in 1999. Prevalence rates for all offences covered by the SCS are in Appendix A6.1.

The average risks for property offences are shown in Figure 6.1. The most common property crime that people experienced in 1999 was vandalism. Six per cent of households experienced vandalism (4% had their motor vehicle vandalised, 2% had other property vandalised). Three percent of households experienced an incident of housebreaking and 3% had been a victim of other household theft. The least common form of vehicle-related theft recorded by the 2000 SCS was theft of a motor vehicle, of which only 1% of motor vehicle owning households were victims. Of the other offences measured among vehicle-owning households, 2% had experienced an attempted theft of or from their vehicle, 4% had something stolen from their motor vehicle and overall, 7% had experienced any form of vehicle theft. Two per cent of bicycle owning households had a bicycle stolen during 1999.

Despite the large increase overall between 1995 and 1999 in the number of incidents of violence reported to the Survey, crimes of violence were still relatively rare, affecting only 3% of respondents (0.3% had experienced a robbery and 2.6% an assault) (Figure 6.2).

Figure 6.1 Proportion of household victims of property crime in 1999

Notes

1. The rates presented are a percentage of all survey households except 'Theft of a motor vehicle', 'Theft from a motor vehicle' and 'Attempted theft of/from a motor vehicle' which are calculated as a percentage of motor vehicle-owning households and 'Bicycle theft' which is calculated as a percentage of bicycle owning households.
2. 'All vehicle theft' comprises 'Theft of a motor vehicle', 'Theft from a motor vehicle' and 'Attempted theft of/from a motor vehicle'.
3. Source: SCS 2000 (all Scotland, weighted data).

Figure 6.2 Proportion of adult victims of violent crime in 1999

Notes

1. 'Offences involving violence' comprises 'Robbery' and 'Assault'.
2. Rates presented are as a percentage of all individuals interviewed.
3. Source: SCS 2000 (all Scotland, weighted data).
4. 'All vandalism comprises vehicle and household vandalism'.

Unequal Risks

Victimisation is not evenly spread among the population - people of certain age, sex and socio-economic status are at more risk of victimisation than others. This section looks briefly at how the risks of being a victim of different types of crime are spread among different types of people and households.

A detailed analysis of risks of housebreaking, vandalism, vehicle thefts and violent crimes is presented in Appendix A (Tables A6.2 to A6.6). Unequal risks among different section of the population have been calculated using disaggregated socio-demographic variables. These results should however be interpreted with caution, as comparison with the results from previous surveys reveals a lack of consistency in the data. This is most likely to be as a result of the larger degree of sampling error that results from analysing small sub-groups of people in the sample, combined with the low incidence rates of some crimes such as robbery and the reduction of base sizes when filtering data (for example, by motor vehicle owners).

For these reasons, this section does not go into detail regarding unequal risks of victimisation and the findings presented are restricted to those risk factors that appear to be consistent over time. Separate modular reports on housebreaking, vehicle crime, and violent crime are also available (see back page), as is information on victimisation of those aged 12 to 15 in a modular report on young people. These contain more detail on the sub-groups in the 2000 sample which were most likely to have experienced crimes in 1999 and set the findings in context.

What we can ascertain with some degree of certainty from the 2000 SCS and previous surveys is that:

• males, people aged 16-24 and those living in high rise flats are most at risk of being a victim of violent crime
• owner-occupiers are more at risk of vandalism than those living in rented accommodation
• those living in accommodation rented from a council or housing association and living on council estates (particularly those classified as most deprived) are most likely to be the victim of a housebreaking
• households situated in the poorest council estates, those living in accommodation rented from a council or housing association and those living in densely populated areas (of 1 million or more) are most likely to be victims of motor vehicle thefts

Multiple Victimisation

The prevalence rates discussed above show how the risk of being a victim varies for different groups, with victims defined as those who experienced a particular offence once or more in 1999. This section considers multiple (or repeat) victimisation - the risk of experiencing more than one incidence of a particular offence. It should be borne in mind that the measure of multiple victimisation presented here is restricted to victimisation over one year only. Some victims will experience repeat incidents over a longer period.

Housebreaking

Table 6.1 shows that of all households that had been a victim of housebreaking in 1999, 91% had been the victim of one such incident, and only 9% had been the victim of more than one. However, the small group of victims (4%) who had suffered three or more incidents in 1999 accounted for 15% of all housebreakings reported to the survey.

Table 6.1 Number of Incidents Experienced by Victims of Housebreaking in 1995 and 1999

Notes
1 Source: 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), victims of housebreaking, n = 155); 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), victims of housebreaking, n = 155).

Vandalism

Repeat victimisation was more common in the case of vandalism. Of those households that had experienced an incident of vandalism in 1999, 71% had only experienced one such incident. However, nearly a third (29%) had been the victim of more than one and 15% had been victimised on three or more occasions (Table 6.2).

Table 6.2 Number of Incidents Experienced by Victims of Vandalism in 1995 and 1999

Notes
1 Source: 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), victims of Vandalism, n = 325); 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), victims of Vandalism, n = 304).

Motor Vehicle Thefts

As Table 6.3 shows, only a very small proportion of victims of vehicle related theft (including actual or attempted theft of or from a motor vehicle) had been victimised more than three times (4%). The vast majority (89%) had experienced only one such incident, possibly as a result of implementing new security measures as a result of their first victimisation.

Table 6.3 Number of Incidents Experienced by Victims of Motor Vehicle Theft in 1995 and 1999

Notes
1 Motor vehicle theft comprises theft of a motor vehicle, theft from a motor vehicle and attempted theft of/from a motor vehicle.
2 Source: 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), motor vehicle owning households experiencing motor vehicle theft, n = 376); 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), motor vehicle owning households experiencing motor vehicle theft, n = 226).

Violent Crimes

Of those who had been the victim of a violent offence (assault or robbery) in 1999, 30% had been victimised more than once, a similar proportion to 1995. However, nearly a quarter of victims in 1999 (24%) had experienced three or more incidents, compared with just 14% in 1995. These victims accounted for around half of all violent incidents reported to the survey in 1999. As is mentioned in Chapter Two Three, responses to a new domestic violence screener question in the 2000 Survey contributed 10% to the overall increase in violent crime (of 33%). Many of these domestic violence incidents were cases of repeat victimisation and this is likely to be at least partly responsible for the increase in multiple occurrences of violent crime.

Table 6.4 Number of Incidents Experienced by Victims of Violent Crimes in 1995 and 1999

Notes
1 Violent crime comprises assault and robbery.
2 Source: 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), victims of violent crime, n = 121); 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), victims of violent crime, n = 112).