Chapter Six conclusions
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Introduction
6.1 This study focuses on countries with ancient historical links. The Nordic Countries are small to medium sized, wealthy countries comprising the northern flank of Europe, while the similar sized Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland lie at the north-western tip of Europe. All these countries have many similarities today in their economic, social and environmental profiles. Perhaps most importantly, they all share common regional political drivers.
Climate impacts
6.2 Regional climate scenarios suggest increasing and more variable precipitation, particularly across the west of the area and rising temperatures, though with substantial regional variation. It appears that the climate of the north-west margin of Europe is diverging from the likely changes in climate suggested in southern and eastern parts of England and the northern mainland countries of Europe. Changing patterns and intensities of precipitation were felt to be the most significant climate impact in Scotland. Temperature rises may well be the most important climate impact in the more northern regions of the Scandinavian countries and Iceland. Recommendation 1: Compare the results from the regional models developed by the various national climate change programmes to explore the modelled climate along the European north and north-west margin.
6.3 Similarly, climate change indicators developed by the Nordic Council of Ministers for Nordic Countries could usefully be compared to those developed for the UK. Recommendation 2: Compare the results of the climate change indicators developed for Scotland with those developed for the Nordic Countries to observe whether regional trends along the European north and north-west margin are different to those of the more continental Southeast of the UK and northern mainland Europe.
Adaptation to climate impacts
6.4 Few projects are investigating adaptation to climate change in the study countries, though their vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change is likely to be similar. Recommendation 3: Future national projects exploring adaptation strategies should be co-ordinated between Scotland, Ireland and the Nordic Countries, through the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers.
Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions
6.5 Climate Change Programmes have been or are being developed in all the study countries. While these Programmes focus on national or local climate issues, there is scope for further collaboration on matters of regional interest, particularly those associated with matters in the energy and business sectors. In the energy sector, the ongoing liberalisation of the energy markets within the Nordic Countries and between the UK and Ireland will play a vital role in determining national strategies for meeting Kyoto targets. In the business sector, the development of national emission trading schemes, the regional use of Kyoto mechanisms in the Baltic area, and the ongoing implementation of energy or carbon taxes provides a useful benchmark against which to compare the success of UK schemes. Recommendation 4: The Scottish Executive should contribute to UK involvement and collaboration with the Nordic Council of Ministers on energy market liberalisation, use of energy and carbon taxation, and the development of emission trading schemes.
6.6 At a Scottish level, much can be learnt from closer collaboration on specific issues with individual study countries. In the energy sector, Scotland has a similar target for the generation of renewable energy to that of Denmark and the two countries could usefully evaluate each other's approach to meeting their targets. In the same vein, Sweden's energy sources are similar to those of Scotland. Sweden is intending to decommission its nuclear power stations over the next few years. Scotland could usefully appraise these developments in preparation for a reduction in its nuclear capacity in coming decades. The reported feasibility study of a large submarine electricity cable from Iceland to Scotland is of great interest for the future development of the energy market in Scotland. Recommendation 5: The Scottish Executive should develop links with Denmark, Sweden and Iceland to appraise developments in their energy sectors of interest to Scotland.
6.7 In the transport sector, the development of urban transit schemes is common to most of the study countries. Local authorities developing urban transit schemes in Scotland could usefully learn from the experience of local authorities in Ireland and the Nordic Countries. The large rural areas in many of the study countries and the generally high fuel taxation suggests that Scotland could explore whether approaches have been adopted elsewhere, particularly Sweden, to mitigate the resulting adverse effects on rural communities. Recommendation 6: The Scottish Executive should encourage local authority links on urban transit schemes with similar schemes in operation in Ireland and the Nordic Countries. Also, the Scottish Executive should explore whether other study countries, particularly Sweden, have adopted any measures to mitigate the adverse effects of high fuel prices on transport in rural areas.
6.8 Most of the climate issues affecting the business sector involve reserved powers for the UK Government and can best be tackled at a UK and Nordic Council of Ministers level. However, the impact on greenhouse gas emissions of reducing the number of waste sites in rural areas provides common ground with issues raised in Iceland and Ireland. Recommendation 7: The Scottish Executive should evaluate the impact on total greenhouse gas emissions, including those of transport, of minimising the number of waste sites in rural areas.
6.9 This study suggests that improving energy and thermal efficiencies in domestic and commercial buildings is the most important climate-related activity available to the Scottish Executive. This can be achieved through changing building regulations and improved awareness of energy matters through energy ratings and audits of households. Recommendation 8: The Scottish Executive should raise building thermal efficiencies to match those of the Nordic Countries and enforce energy audits of buildings. Also, the Scottish Executive should integrate the current schemes for providing information and advice on energy efficiency into a well marketed 'one stop shop' akin to the Irish Energy Centre.
6.10 None of the study countries appears to have specific agricultural policies that are designed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, a side-effect of policies in Sweden, Norway, and Ireland to reduce nitrate pollution is the reduction of nitrous oxide emissions. Sweden also appears to have been successful in linking energy policy to agriculture with its biomass production. Recommendation 9: The Scottish Executive should inform its agricultural policy development with a detailed examination of measures in place in Ireland, Norway and Sweden to reduce nitrate pollution and thus nitrous oxide emissions.
6.11 One particular focus of Scottish forestry concerns afforestation of peaty soils. This is an active area of research in Finland. Recommendation 10: The Scottish Executive should formulate links with Finland to explore the outputs of their work on afforestation of peaty soils.
6.12 Changes in ocean currents would have a major detrimental impact on fisheries in the North Atlantic. Recommendation 11: The Scottish Executive should continue to contribute to the current research on ocean current changes and fish stocks and monitor carefully the outputs of the proposed joint Norwegian-UK research programme on ocean current changes.
Summary
6.11 The political drivers for increasing regionalisation within Europe provide exciting opportunities for collaboration both at the UK level and, increasingly, for the Scottish Executive. Developing links with these countries that have similar social, economic and environmental profiles on the north and north-west margin of Europe will keep Scotland's climate policies at the forefront of international best-practice.