SWEDEN
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Introduction
3.71 This section compiles the information from the English summary of the recently published draft climate programme (Sweden's Ministry of Environment, 2000), sectoral policy papers and the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (Sweden's Ministry of the Environment, 1997) and its associated review (UNFCCC, 1999c). This information is compared to the approach to climate issues adopted by the other study countries in Chapter Four. The draft climate programme will be translated fully into English by the end of May 2000.
Figure 3.4 Outline map of Sweden (shaded)
Climate Impacts and Adaptation
3.72 The best available climate scenarios for Sweden suggest that by 2030 mean winter temperature will increase by about 3°C, and summer temperature by about 2°C. Precipitation is expected to increase by 10 mm per month in summer and 15 mm per month in winter. Other probable changes are an increase in the frequency of storms, at least in the short term, plus generally greater variability in the climate. However, existing climate models are not deemed adequate for policy decision making in Sweden, as they take no account of the effect of the Scandinavian mountain range on precipitation. The Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA) together with the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) are therefore developing climate models to generate more detailed scenarios.
3.73 Sweden has provided extensive information on the possible impacts of climate change on its ecosystems (Sweden's Ministry of the Environment, 1994). Sweden's sub-arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable due to long generation times, slow growth and irregular reproduction. Climate changes are expected to affect the mountain regions first, where the adaptability of the ecosystems is limited. The Baltic Sea is also vulnerable and could be affected in three different ways: through sea level rise, warmer water temperatures and reduced salinity. Climate models predict more precipitation in the wintertime, leading to an increase in the runoff of surface water to the Baltic Sea, reducing salinity. If the flow of oxygen-rich and high-salinity water from the Atlantic into the Baltic were affected, serious consequences could follow.
3.74 Increasing air temperature and precipitation could lead to faster growth of forests, but might also increase the risk of damage by insects and disease. However, some tree species are adapted to cold winters, and would not be favoured. Spruce forests appear to be the most vulnerable to rapid climate changes. The forest's long rotation time makes it difficult for forest owners to adapt their cultivation methods to change conditions.
3.75 Sweden's Second National Communication on Climate Change (Sweden's Ministry of the Environment, 1997) presents a very thorough discussion of possible climate impacts on technical structures. This is based on a study which examined a 'what if' scenario of rising temperatures and sea level on hydrological systems, infrastructure and the energy sector. On the whole, there appear to be many potential negative impacts with increased risks of flooding, landslides, and damage to roads and bridges through corrosion in a milder, damper climate, and reductions in drinking water quality caused by increased evaporation from lakes. The risks of power failure would also be increased from heavy, wet snowfall cutting transmission lines. There could also be positive impacts, such as reduced expenditure on winter heating and reductions in the cost of winter road maintenance. Maps showing flood risk along major rivers have been produced; to assist town planning in areas at risk of floods from rivers, and to inform rescue services. However, most impacts are unlikely to be felt before 2030, and at present there are no specific adaptation measures in place.
Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
3.76 The UNFCCC review suggested that Sweden has a comprehensive set of policies and measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (UNFCCC, 1999c). Nevertheless, these are unlikely to help Sweden achieve its national goal of stabilising carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels in 2000. Sweden has used economic instruments to tackle greenhouse gas emissions; these have resulted in high levels of taxation and further increases are thought likely to affect competitiveness.
3.77 The recently published draft climate programme proposes both long-term objectives to 2050, comprising a decrease in emissions of greenhouse gases by approximately 50% on 1990 levels, and short-term objectives for the Kyoto period of 2008-2012. The short-term objective is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 2% relative to the 1990 levels. Measures beyond Sweden's national borders, such as use of the flexible mechanisms within the Kyoto Protocol, are assumed to be supplemental to the main national work of emissions reductions. The strategy for achieving these reductions is based on the need for international collaboration and the need for a long-term approach integrating the relevant policy areas.
Energy
3.78 Energy in Sweden is produced primarily from oil, hydroelectricity, biofuels and nuclear power. Since 1970, the mix of fuel has changed substantially away from oil towards hydroelectric and nuclear power, though oil is still the largest element of energy supply. Total energy use has declined in industry and the domestic sector but increased in the transport sector. One quarter of all energy is used for domestic heating (Swedish Institute, 1998).
3.79 More than 90% of electricity production uses hydro or nuclear power and it accounts for more than 30% of total energy use. As a result, carbon dioxide emissions per head of population are low compared with many other OECD countries despite the very high electricity consumption. Less than 5% of electricity generation is based on fossil fuels. Reducing further the amount of fossil fuel generated electricity is likely to attract a high marginal cost.
3.80 Sweden lacks significant fossil fuel deposits and there is only a limited gas pipeline infrastructure. Diversification of energy supply is influenced by the availability of the different sources. Oil-fired and gas-fired plants are used primarily as reserve capacity when demand is high in winter or precipitation patterns are unfavourable. The Second National Communication notes that hydropower production may vary by over 20% year to year because of the variation in rainfall.
3.81 The key political instruments for controlling energy use are a carbon dioxide tax (by means of a consumption tax on fossil fuels), emissions regulations and environmental surcharges. Sweden taxes both energy and carbon dioxide via a consumption tax on fossil fuels, except where these are used to generate electricity. Biofuels have not been subject to these taxes, with a consequent increase in the number of district heating and combined heat and power (CHP) plants changing from coal to biofuels. There is a commitment to phase out nuclear power. Sweden has 12 nuclear power stations and a cross-party agreement seeks to shut down two power stations by 2002. This process is being challenged in the courts at present.
3.82 In future, the ongoing liberalisation and interconnection of the Nordic electricity and gas markets will have a large impact on emissions from the energy sector. The future of the nuclear power stations appears crucial in determining the extent to which Sweden meets its emissions targets.
Transport
3.83 More than 75% of total passenger transport volume entails the use of cars. Public transport has increased slightly in recent years but at a slower rate than car use. Between 1975 and 1995 the number of cars on the road increased from 2.8 million to 3.6 million. Rail journeys accounted for about 10% of long distance journeys in 1995.
3.84 Sweden uses two strategies to tackle increasing emissions from the transport sector. These are financial instruments and research and development into alternative fuels and hybrid/electrical vehicles. Nevertheless, emissions from the transport sector are expected to increase by 20% by 2010 (UNFCCC, 1999c). Purchase taxes on vehicles have differentiated environmental classes, based on emissions of carbon monoxide and nitrous oxide. The UNFCCC were advised that Sweden's ability to levy differential sales tax on vehicles is limited by EC regulations. A new transport policy has set out long-term objectives relating in part to the environment. It provides for annual reporting to Parliament on the extent to which policy objectives have been achieved. The Road Tax Commission has been assigned to review road taxation, though public antipathy towards further fuel taxation may limit the Government's options. The UNFCCC reported that the Government intends to establish a Goods Transport Delegation to facilitate co-operation between the different modes and design a national goods transport strategy. However, in many industries, rail is not a viable alternative to road over the predominantly short (less than 100km) journeys.
3.85 Sweden's two car manufacturers will align with the EC target level of reducing average fuel consumption by 25% by 2005 to 1990 levels. The UNFCCC review team noted that plans to introduce road pricing in Sweden's two major cities, Stockholm and Göteborg, were dropped after public opposition. Small-scale schemes in the cities operate buses on alternative fuels, including ethanol, biogas, and mixed fuel vehicles. However, these schemes are not commercially viable on large scales.
3.86 The UNFCCC review team suggested that Sweden appeared to place more emphasis on reducing emissions from the energy sector than the transport sector, which produces nearly a third of total emissions.
Business
3.87 Like its Nordic neighbours, Sweden has a relatively open economy and is dependent on international trade to maintain its high living standards. It has a diversified economy ranging from traditional industries to engineering and high-tech sectors. The economy is partly dependent on a small number of very large international companies.
3.88 Climate policies affecting business are environmental taxation, emission limits and waste legislation. The Climate Change Policy Decision of 1993 required a 30% reduction in methane emissions from landfill sites by 2000 primarily through the installation of landfill gas recovery systems. This is likely to have been achieved. Energy from such installations provides mainly heat. Other policy instruments were adopted by Parliament in 1997 to broaden producer responsibility for waste and introduce a landfill tax. Producers are responsible for collecting and disposing of waste paper packaging, tyres and cars. In 2005 there will be a ban on all organic waste going to landfill. Each municipality is obliged to have a waste management plan, which includes measures to reduce waste quantities.
Domestic
3.89 Domestic energy use has been relatively stable in recent decades, despite the increase in numbers and size of homes. Oil has been replaced increasingly by electric heating or district heating and this has contributed to the more efficient use of energy. Other factors include the increase in installation of heat pumps, supplementary insulation and new glazing in older buildings.
3.90 A new Environmental Code came into force in 1999 and consolidated existing legislation to support sustainable development. Physical planning and the housing and building sector are seen to have an important role.
3.91 Swedish municipalities play an important role in minimising energy use in the domestic sector. Many municipalities have their own energy companies and they have been legally obliged to promote the efficient use of energy in their planning. All plans for the supply of energy to households must include an environmental impact study.
3.92 Sweden is subsidising municipalities to implement measures that reduce environmental impact, utilise energy more efficiently and promote the use of renewables and recycling. These funds may be used, amongst other things, in the transport sector for public transport infrastructure. Stockholm, along with Göteborg, Linköping, Laholm and Växjö, are members of the International Council for Local Environment Initiatives, which encourages members to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2005.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
3.93 The agriculture sector employs about 3% of the population and less than 10% of land area was devoted to farming in 1995. The sector has reduced in size greatly over the past 50 years, in terms of employment, farm numbers and land area tilled, mainly as a result of structural transformation to increase efficiency. There are no policies specifically targeted at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, some measures have had that effect, for instance regulations controlling animal stocking density and manure spreading and a tax on nitrogen-based fertilisers. The environmental tax on nitrogen accounted for approximately 20 per cent of the price of fertiliser in 1996. The estimated use of nitrogen fertiliser fell by about 15 per cent between 1986 and 1996, tending to decrease emissions of nitrous oxide. Incentives are provided by Government to promote organic farming, which now accounts for 8% of arable land, further reducing the use of fertilisers.
3.94 In recent years subsidies have been used to increase the cultivation of biomass crops such as willow, which is now grown on approximately 16,000 ha. The increased use of biomass as a carbon neutral energy source to replace fossil fuel combustion is part of Swedish energy policy. Willow also increases soil carbon content, providing a long-term carbon dioxide sink.
3.95 Forest is one of Sweden's most important natural resources and is the basis of a large forest products and paper industry. Forest covers about 62% of Sweden's land area. The predominant tree species are Norway spruce (46%); Scots pine (38%); and birch (10%). Swedish forestry policy during the 20th century has been characterised by an insistence on sustainable management of timber resources and by determined efforts to improve silvicultural practices. As a consequence of these policies, the total volume of standing timber has increased from 1.8 billion to 2.8 billion m3 since the 1920s, when the national forest survey started. The annual growth of the forest exceeds timber removals, causing a net uptake of carbon dioxide into the standing biomass that represents about half of Sweden's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use.
3.96 The potential to increase forest coverage is limited and there are no specific climate change related forestry policies. Under existing policy, law for conservation or recreational use protects about 4% of the managed forest. In 1993/4, changes in the Forestry Act reflected the increasing importance of biodiversity and the preservation of species, as environmental and production goals were given equal priority. Publicly funded campaigns are run to make the forest industry more environmentally aware.