IRELAND
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Introduction
3.154 Information on Ireland was obtained from the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (Ireland's Department of the Environment, 1997) and its associated review (UNFCCC, 1999f); and sectoral policy papers on energy and business (Boyle, 2000). This information is compared with the approach adopted by other study countries to climate issues in Chapter Four.
Figure 3.7 Outline map of Ireland (shaded)
Climate Impacts and Adaptation
3.155 The impacts of climate change in Ireland were investigated in a series of studies published by the Department of the Environment in 1991. These were based on an assumed increase in mean annual temperature of 2 °C, a 5% to 10% increase in winter precipitation and a 5% to 10% decrease in summer precipitation, and a projected 18 cm rise in mean sea level. These assumptions agree broadly with the 1990 scientific assessment of the IPCC and have not been significantly altered by subsequent studies, so the conclusions of the 1991 impact assessment are still considered valid.
3.156 Potential impacts on Ireland's economically important agriculture sector were found to be mainly beneficial. The studies showed that Ireland would share in the enhanced agricultural production potential of Northern Europe expected to result from higher temperatures and increased carbon dioxide levels, both tending to increase crop growth rates. The production options available would be increased, a wider range of crops could be grown, and the overall costs of agricultural production would be likely to decrease. Similarly, higher temperatures and carbon dioxide levels would probably increase forest productivity, although the incidence of pests and diseases might increase.
3.157 The change in winter rainfall regime is likely to result in more frequent serious flooding, which would last longer and be more widespread. This outcome is favoured by Ireland's "saucer-shaped" topography: a large central lowland of limestone surrounded by a number of coastal mountain ranges. The lowlands are drained by slow moving rivers already prone to winter flooding. The coastal mountains are drained by many smaller, faster flowing rivers, which are prone to flash flooding in storms. Conversely, lower summer rainfall could lead to water supply shortages occurring more regularly and for longer time periods at present. Increased summer soil water deficits will accelerate the rate of decay of peat, potentially causing serious damage to peatlands; moreover, the rate of addition of plant debris to form new peat will decrease, causing a gradual shift toward a drier dwarf-shrub or grass dominated heath. Such deterioration of peatlands would release additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and is potentially the most serious impact of climate change in Ireland.
3.158 The rise in mean sea level will only have a significant impact when associated with storms. Storms and storm surges are likely to have a major impact throughout Ireland, but particularly on the west coast, where the largest proportion of the land at risk of flooding is situated. The most significant impacts may however occur in the east, where much of the shoreline has been developed. It is estimated that over 50% of the Irish population live in coastal areas.
Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
3.159 The basis on which Ireland is taking forward its mitigation strategy is the ERM report entitled, 'Limitation and Reduction of CO2 and Other Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland' (ERM, 1998). The report sets out the policy options available to Ireland to mitigate its greenhouse gas emissions. A period of consultation has followed. The Department of the Environment is now developing the Irish Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy, which will be published later this year, to meet Irish commitments under the EU burden sharing agreement. The complementary Green Paper on Sustainable Energy charts a possible way forward for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector. The Report of the Working Group on Emissions Trading is also due to be published shortly.
Energy
3.160 In 1997, the main sources of energy were oil, natural gas, coal, peat and renewables. Peat and natural gas are indigenous and account for about 33% of the total. The share of natural gas and renewables has increased at the expense of peat and coal, but the fuel mix remains relatively carbon intensive.
3.161 Energy consumption has increased in recent years with the considerable economic growth in Ireland. However, since 1990, economic growth has increased by 49% while energy consumption has increased by only 25%, so lowering energy intensity over this time, indicating that there has been some de-coupling of energy use from economic growth.
3.162 In common with other countries, electricity continues to take an increasing share of final energy consumption (17% in 1996). It is derived primarily from fossil fuels and there is no scope for hydroelectricity and minimal capability for district-heating because of the low population density. Nuclear energy is not considered to be an acceptable option. The energy market is being liberalised and will lead to a competitive market in place of the existing vertically integrated monopoly supplier, ESB.
3.163 Future energy policy will depend on the impact of the market liberalisation and the political need for security of supply. For example, peat power stations provide employment in rural areas and reduce the need for fossil-fuel imports, but the power stations are less efficient and generate more greenhouse gas emissions. Future power stations are likely to be based on natural gas or renewables, where supported by the government (UNFCCC, 1999f). Ireland's natural gas reserves were estimated to be about 5 years in 1998, but 50% of gas was imported through the UK interconnector and this is likely to rise with the depletion of the Irish Kinsale gas field. The natural gas infrastructure is being extended at present.
3.164 The recent green paper on sustainable energy in Ireland defines a sustainable energy policy as:
- Ensuring security of energy supply to support economic and social development
- Maximising efficiency of generation
- Promoting a culture of energy conservation
- Minimising greenhouse gas emissions
- Maintaining local air quality
3.165 The Green Paper features a number of substantial measures for abating carbon dioxide, with a budget of £126 million:
- Strengthened Irish Energy Centre: £29 million;
- Research and development: £40 million;
- Renewables/combined heat & power (CHP): £37 million;
- Energy efficient homes/public sector buildings: £20 million
Transport
3.166 Roads are the dominant form of internal transport and account for approximately 90% of goods and 96% of passenger transport (Ireland's EPA, 2000). The total number of vehicles has risen by 50% since the mid-1980s, with private cars accounting for the major part, though car ownership is still relatively low by European standards. Travel patterns have also changed with the number of people travelling to work by private vehicles increasing by over 40% between 1986 and 1996 while the number of people travelling by public transport, bicycle or foot decreasing by 6%.
3.167 Almost 50% of households were in rural areas in 1996. Almost half of all road freight transport involved journeys of less than 25 km. This evidence suggests that modal switching to rail transport is unlikely to take place. Cost effective public transport is limited by the dispersed population. Rural bus services only received a small part of the public transport subsidies in the 1990s.
3.168 The UNFCCC review team reported that no major crosscutting policies existed to limit emissions, such as a fuel duty strategy. At present the focus is on improving transport links between cities and towns to develop the economy and create employment. Public funding of railways focuses on the key links around Dublin and between Dublin and Belfast.
3.169 The Dublin Transport Initiative is particularly important. The plan is to establish a light railway system, improved bus and rail services, park-and-ride facilities, and improve bicycle access and enforce existing traffic measures. Although car travel is expected to increase, it is suggested that by 2006 more people will travel around Dublin by public transport than by car.
3.170 Vehicle registration costs differ by engine size. An annual road tax also applies to vehicles depending on engine size.
Business
3.171 Ireland has a small open economy, which has experienced rapid growth in recent years. Industrial policy has successfully attracted inward investment, resulting in a restructuring of the economy towards high technology manufacturing, especially electronics and pharmaceuticals. The sectoral use of energy comprises industrial (35%), residential (33%) transport (20%) and commercial (12%). Industrial production has more than doubled during the period 1991 to 1998. Environmental regulation to reduce the impact on the environment includes the Integrated Pollution Control licensing of industries and voluntary measures, such as participation in the EU Eco-management and Audit Scheme (EMAS) (Ireland's EPA, 1999).
3.172 The impact of energy taxation on Irish business has been considered in detail in the study, 'The Competitiveness and Environmental Impact of Energy Taxation on Irish Business', commissioned by the Irish employer's body, IBEC (Boyle, 2000). The report examined the effect of a potential EU Carbon/Energy Tax, an Energy Levy, the UK Climate Change Levy and other tax proposals from the EU. The conclusion was that the highest taxation arose from the proposed EU Energy/Carbon tax and that energy intensive sectors were all vulnerable. The report argued for more flexibility to respond to emission reduction obligations through emissions trading and negotiated agreements. The Economic and Social Research Institute is also a source of detailed analyses on energy policy and emissions trading. 'Implementing Kyoto' (FitzGerald, 2000) considers the options for emissions trading and concludes that any attempt to insulate individual sectors could greatly increase the economic cost to Ireland.
3.173 Landfill has been the main method of waste disposal. A number of initiatives, reflecting EC concerns, are designed to prevent waste, reduce non-recyclable waste, and recycle where possible. Ireland's low population makes collection costs relatively high. A regional approach to waste management is seen as the only viable option.
3.174 All landfills have to be licensed by the Environment Protection Agency who seek to introduce gas flaring or collection and recovery. Local authorities will be required to prepare waste management plans to minimise waste.
Domestic
3.175 The building stock is unusually new by European standards and there is further demand for additional stock. Building regulations and thermal efficiencies are similar in Ireland to those in Northern Ireland and Scotland (BRE, pers. comm.). Since the introduction of revised building regulations in 1992 insulation levels are estimated to have risen by 50% with a consequent reduction in energy use of 20% (UNFCCC, 1998f). Further amendments together with an optional rating system for new houses to inform customers of the relative energy requirements, should yield further savings.
3.176 The Irish Energy Centre, part funded by Government and part by the EC, is responsible for energy efficiency and renewable energy information, advice and support. It acts as a one stop Centre for all sectors. Its main activities are:
- supporting energy auditing
- supporting investment in energy efficient technology
- providing technical advice in relation to energy supply and use
- mounting information campaigns
- implementing backup measures
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
3.177 Despite the gradual decline in the relative importance of agriculture in the past few decades the sector remains the Ireland's most important industry, accounting for around 8% of GDP, 11% of employment and 21% of exports. This compares with approximate EU averages of 3% of GDP, 6% of employment and 9% of exports. The vast majority of farms are owned and operated by farming families, with an average size of 26 hectares, although there is considerable variation. Of a total land area of 7 million hectares, 5 million hectares are used for agricultural purposes. With mild temperatures and relatively high rainfall, conditions are ideally suited to livestock, with the result that cattle raising and dairying are by far the most important agricultural activities. Livestock (mainly cattle) and livestock products (principally milk) account for around 87% of the value of gross agricultural output.
3.178 In 1995 agriculture was responsible for about 78% of Ireland's CH4 emissions and 73% of nitrous oxide emissions. Agricultural sources accounted for 35% of the total national greenhouse gas emissions, more than any other sector. Climate concerns have not been integrated into agricultural policy, but a number of agricultural reforms intended to address environmental problems such as water pollution by nitrates may also, in effect, reduce emissions.
3.179 The main source of methane is enteric fermentation in livestock, so the level of emission is highly dependent on animal numbers which, in turn, are strongly influenced by policy at both national and EU level. Policy changes in the 1990s could slow or reverse upward trends. As methane emissions from livestock are related to dry matter uptake, any efficiency improvements could reduce methane emissions by up to 25 per cent with no loss in agricultural output. However, this would entail an increase in costs and no implementation plans were in place in 1999.
3.180 Methane is also emitted by anaerobic decomposition of slurry and manure. Improved land management can limit emissions but the small size of Irish farms may make such measures less cost-effective than elsewhere. Nevertheless, state grants are available to assist farmers to provide appropriate storage facilities; in addition, an improved scheme of capital allowances for investment in pollution control facilities has been introduced.
3.181 The consumption of nitrogen fertilisers has shown an upward trend for two decades. The relatively high rainfall in Ireland and the high water holding capacity of a large proportion of the agricultural soil demands a higher level of fertiliser use as well as favouring higher nitrous oxide loss due to the application of fertiliser in wetter conditions. Nutrient Management Plans at farm and catchment levels have also been introduced and have been given a statutory basis in the Waste Management Act, 1996. Enhanced publicity by local authorities and farmer organisations of correct fertiliser usage is also planned. These measures are expected to lead to a reduction in the amount of nitrogen fertiliser used, therefore tending to reduce nitrous oxide emissions.
3.182 In 1995 about 8% of the total land area was covered by forest, the lowest proportion in the EU. The Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry has a long-term strategic forest expansion plan to increase annual timber production from 2.2 million m3 in 1996 to 10-15 million m3 in 2030, to compete in international timber product markets. The aim is to achieve afforestation levels of 20,000 hectares per annum from 2000 to 2030, resulting in a doubling of forest cover to 17% of land area. Afforestation is driven by the availability of attractive grant and premium supports and virtually no afforestation is undertaken without such assistance. While conifers, mainly Sitka Spruce, represent around 84% of the forest estate and 80% of current planting, an increase in diversity and in the planting of broadleaves is being encouraged. In 1995 Ireland's forests took up 6,230 Gg of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 18% of national carbon dioxide emissions.