First Minister Alex Salmond
Reflections on Scotland in the World
Scotland in the World Forum
University of Aberdeen
February 4, 2008
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It is a pleasure to be invited here today to deliver the inaugural lecture of the Scotland in the World Forum, here at Aberdeen University.
And it is fitting that today we are holding today's discussions at the King's College Conference Centre.
Many of you will remember that this was the venue for three days of plenary debate for the Scottish Parliament, when it decanted to Aberdeen in May 2002.
At that time I was an MP - and not an MSP - so wasn't able to share in the debate. However, I did return here in September 2002 to speak in an excellent public debate on the question: 'Is the Scottish Parliament a Parliament for the People?'
And in case some of you are wondering, the answer to that question is: prior to 3 May 2007, up to a point. And since 3 May 2007, without question!
The purpose of this Forum is to consider Scotland's global standing and our global potential. And it is entirely right that in doing so, you will draw on experts from around the world.
I see you have assembled a varied and highly distinguished series of guest speakers:
- The Prime Minister of Finland, Matti Vanhanen
- From the White House, Jeffrey Weinberg
- From the University of Barcelona, Prof Joseph Colmer
So I have no doubt this Forum will prove to be valuable and stimulate serious and worthwhile discussion.
And at this point let me pay tribute to Prof Bryan MacGregor, Prof Richard Rose and all their colleagues that have helped to set up this forum.
I have long looked to Scotland's academic community to engage fully in the debate on Scotland's place in the world - and turn their considerable talents, intellect and creativity to examining the challenges that we face.
Because make no mistake - Scotland has already changed. And Scotland is continuing to grow and develop as a nation and a society.
Last May, the people of Scotland sent out a clear message. They did not just vote for a change of government.
They voted for a change in governance. A stronger, more effective, more democratic Scotland.
And they expressed their hunger for a higher level of ambition - in our government and in ourselves.
In the country we seek to build. And in our image and standing abroad.
These are profound and permanent changes.
And in government, in parliament, in academia, business and the media - we will spend the coming years studying, shaping and responding to this new landscape.
So as I said, it is to the particular credit of the organisers and the faculty that Aberdeen University is one of the first to publicly grasp these issues and take a major role in this new debate.
Let me briefly outline the subject of my remarks today.
I will deal directly with the theme of today's discussion - independence and interdependence - because it poses exactly the right questions about Scotland's role, our global potential, and how we can best achieve that potential.
So we should first consider the changing global context that Scotland - like all nations - faces today.
I will then discuss the major challenges that we face - in economic policy and in the international arena.
To a large extent these are shared challenges, which we face together with the European Union, with the United Kingdom, and with our global partners.
But there are several areas - in economics and international relations - where Scotland has strong and distinct interests. And where our best interests are served by shaping and pursuing our own policies.
First, the global context and Scotland's place within it.
At the close of the 19th century Scotland was probably the wealthiest country per capita in the world. We were world leaders in industrial innovation and home to the world's most efficient capital market.
However the first half and middle of the twentieth century saw major economic and geopolitical instability.
Economically, we saw a retreat from a form of 'globalisation' in the nineteenth century, to isolationism and protectionism. And an end to the large global flows of goods, labour and capital - which had been the source of Scotland's economic strength.
The backdrop to this economic disengagement was global insecurity, and two major wars. The first of these, the Great War, had an extraordinarily damaging effect on Scotland, which lost as great a share of its human capital - that is our people and potential - as any other country on this earth.
During those times of great uncertainty and upheaval, smaller countries faced two major disadvantages. First, ensuring their security. And second, access to markets.
However, the latter half of the twentieth century saw a return to a more benign and positive global environment, with much greater stability and growing economic openness.
And since the end of the Cold War, this process of increasing openness has continued apace.
In this new environment, the previous weaknesses of smaller nations disappeared - and they could exercise their natural strengths. Flexibility. Speed of decision-making. Clearly defined national interests. And pursuit of a clear economic strategy.
One century ago there were only 50 nations in the world. Today there are almost 200.
And I recall that in 1990 - just after the fall of the Berlin Wall - a Russian Klondyker sailed into Peterhead harbour under the flag of the Soviet Union. And the same boat sailed out shortly afterwards with the flag of newly independent Latvia.
And especially in Europe, it is those smaller, independent nations which have been the great success story.
That is why this Government looks particularly to Ireland and to the Nordic countries to measure our economic potential.
Because these countries - which form an Arc of Prosperity around us - are a working model of what Scotland can achieve in the modern global economy
I say 'what Scotland can achieve'.
But the truth is that we will only achieve our economic potential - create a true Celtic Lion - once we have the same powers and freedoms that these countries take for granted.
To set the right policies for the national interest. On taxation. On energy. On innovation. Across the whole economy.
Let me say a bit more about the choices facing Scotland's economy today.
There is no doubt that Scotland faces many challenges that are common to all European economies - raising productivity, increasing employment, delivering social justice and safeguarding our environment.
And clearly Scotland has a high degree of economic interdependence. Not just with the United Kingdom - but with all 27 Member States of the European Union and with the countries in the arc of prosperity including Norway and Iceland.
Because it is a fact that we are all equal partners in the world's largest economic bloc - a single market of 500 million people. And we face the world with common rules on trade, investment, intellectual property and competition.
So there is close interdependence with our European partners. Strong growth in one region creates new opportunities for all.
Looking beyond Europe, Scotland has always had strong economic ties - particularly in terms of inward investment - with America. It is an old saying that when the U.S. economy sneezes, most of its trading partners reach for the Lemsip.
But Scotland's commercial ties are wider still. We are creating ever broader and deeper links to the emerging economic powers - particularly China and India.
When I met with the Chinese Consul General a fortnight ago, we were able to discuss not only a plan to expand educational and cultural ties. But also to survey:
- Growing commercial relationships in the banking sector
- Joint funding of new research on renewable energy
- Many successful partnerships and joint ventures based in China, bringing together Scottish and Chinese companies
So Scotland's economic interdependence is a fact.
And to paraphrase Peter Mandelson - something I do only rarely - it is a fact about which the Scottish Government and Scottish business are 'intensely relaxed'.
We have strong economic relationships with the rest of the UK. With our EU partners. And with large and small nations across the world.
And I would contend that the basis of that framework is not Scotland's relationship with the other nations of the UK - strong and enduring though that will be.
Rather, the reality is that our fundamental economic role is as a member of the world's largest single market - the European Union. And it is this relationship which does most to shape the rules and the terms of our global commercial ties.
Nonetheless it remains for many an article of faith that a positive future for Scotland's economy depends squarely on our continuing membership of the United Kingdom.
Alistair Darling made exactly this argument in a lecture at Stirling University in November. That only the Union could guarantee Scotland the stability, flexibility and investment that our economy needs.
I for one was not convinced!
First, because 'stability, flexibility and investment' are certainly not the words that immediately spring to mind when one looks at the UK's public finances.
And second, because I believe that we must look outwards, not inwards, to test our true economic potential - measuring ourselves against our international competitors.
Look at the experience of Ireland. The greatest economic success story in the European Union, with economic growth averaging 5.2% per year over the last three decades.
And look at independent Norway. A strong, stable and prosperous nation outside the European Union - which has grown at 3.2% per year during the past thirty years.
Then consider Scotland, which within the United Kingdom has grown at just 1.8% per year during that period.
Like Scotland, both Ireland and Norway have the UK as their largest bilateral trading partner.
But unlike Scotland, Ireland and Norway are not tied to UK economic policies, tax rates and business cycles.
It is very hard to argue that they are poorer for it.
Just as it is increasingly difficult to argue the economic case for Scotland's membership of the Union.
Let me move on to discuss the international situation.
Once again, like any internationalist, I embrace Scotland's interdependence and the advantages that such interdependence confers.
But in international relations - perhaps even more than the economic sphere - there are major advantages to pursuing an independent policy that promotes Scotland's global interests.
Indeed it precisely because we live in an interdependent world - one where markets are integrating and information flow is unstoppable - a world where the reality of climate change acts as a daily reminder of our reliance on each other - that independence matters.
Interdependence is a welcome fact of modern global politics. What matters in the Scottish national interest - above all else - are the terms on which Scotland engages. The equality of esteem, of authority between nations matters more now than it has ever done.
The choice for Scotland is quite clear. We can choose to remain a bit part player - unable to advance our interests and influence the international agenda other than through the United Kingdom.
Alternatively, as in independent country, we can actively seek responsibility - eager for the opportunity to help shape the great global debates.
On the environment, on trade, on poverty, on the emergence of new economies.
Certainly an independent Scotland would not have its foreign policy defined by involvement in the invasion of Iraq.
Rather, an independent Scotland would seek to exercise our responsibilities in a different way.
I want Scotland to be a leader in international conflict resolution. I want to build on the tremendous sense of goodwill towards our nation across the globe.
Real leadership is not just about winning conflict - it is about having a strategy to defuse it. Resolution of conflict is harder, more subtle, more difficult.
But it is an area where Scotland can excel. One look to the efforts of our Nordic friends in a range of such conflict situations shows what can be achieved.
Because this is not just about national self-interest. Global citizenship is about our commitment to safety and security around the globe.
For me, therefore, Scottish independence is not just an opportunity to move Scotland forward but a chance for Scotland to give something back. To meet our global responsibilities.
It is certainly not the case that Scotland will refuse to contemplate the possibility of future conflict. However, one thing I can guarantee is that the only place where I can see a legitimate role is under the auspices of the United Nations - and hopefully in a peace-keeping capacity.
Moreover, our contribution to peace-keeping would continue. I believe that Scottish troops and others - whether in terms of building a civic society or restoring policing - can play a hugely influential role in the vast array of conflict zones around the world in which the United Nations is taking the lead.
Moreover, like so many other countries - Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Finland and Sweden to name a few, we support the Partnership for Peace programme in terms of practical bi-lateral co-operation.
Outside the military sphere, Scotland has vital interests at stake in the European Union - particularly in energy policy and in fisheries. These industries are essential for the success of our economy and for the health of our communities.
Currently, however, Scotland is without its own seat at the European table. Instead we are dependent on the UK Government to advance Scotland's distinct interests within the European Council of Ministers.
And UK Ministers are not always able - and occasionally, unwilling - to fight Scotland's case in Brussels.
It is perhaps worth noting in passing that, Slovenia, which has a population half the size of Scotland, is the current President of the European Council - and so sets the agenda for all Europe's Ministerial meetings.
And Finland - a country of comparable size to Scotland - chaired the European Council in 2006 and led a very effective Presidency.
This country is more than willing - and more than able - to play a full and constructive role in the European Union and globally.
And I would be very surprised if many here would argue with the proposition that Scotland's global standing - and our vital interests - would be better served if this country had the same status as independent Finland and Slovenia.
Let me summarise the argument here and draw to close.
Scotland is considering its position in a world of close and ever-growing economic interdependence. And a world where the great challenges of security, diplomacy and peace-keeping require ever closer cooperation.
As an actor in the global economy, Scotland has deep ties to our immediate neighbours, to the European Union, and beyond.
We benefit greatly from cooperation through these partnerships. But that does not obviate the huge economic rewards for countries that are innovative and flexible and pursuing the right economic strategy.
Scotland looks to embrace partnership in the realm of diplomacy and security. I believe this country can achieve still more by pursuing a clear and distinct set of interests. And by defining and pursuing our global responsibilities.
That is why this Government believes that now, more than ever, Scotland stands to benefit from full independence.
The Scottish Government has launched a National Conversation with the people of Scotland. This conversation is about the country that we wish to be - and the changes that we must make to meet our ambitions.
Through the National Conversation we are seeking to reach out across the country and across our society to hear the views of the people.
The Forum that we are launching today will be a major part of this conversation, drawing in views across the academic world and internationally. It is a vital arena for debate and we will follow your discussions with a keen interest.
So I would like to thank Aberdeen University for this great contribution. And to wish you every success in your future discussions.