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H1N1 deaths

22/10/2009

The latest figures about the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) in Scotland have been published today.

Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon also announced a further four deaths related to H1N1.

The patients who have died are a 16-year-old male Glasgow patient with significant underlying health conditions, a 77-year-old man from Glasgow with underlying health conditions, a 54-year-old woman also from Glasgow with significant underlying health conditions and a 47-year-old woman from Fife with significant underlying health conditions.

At the request of the families, no further details will be released.

This week's figures about the incidence of H1N1, published by Health Protection Scotland, show:

• A rate of GP consultations for flu-like illnesses - not necessarily H1N1 - across Scotland of 88.5 per 100,000. This is a decrease from last weeks figure of 106.3 but still higher than we would expect at this time of year
• The number of community samples that tested positive for H1N1 has increased to 38.5 per cent from 29.3 per cent last week
• These rates suggest that an estimated figure of 5,130 have consulted their GP. However, taking account of the number of people having H1N1 but not consulting their GP, HPS estimate that around 14,650 people have contracted H1N1 in the past week
• As of October 20, there were 441 people with influenza A (H1N1) hospitalised since the start of the outbreak. 108 people have required hospital admission in the last week and, as of today, there are 75 in hospital in Scotland
• There have been 21 deaths linked to influenza A (H1N1) since the start of the outbreak
• Weekly school returns following the mid term break indicated no overall increases in school absence levels

Speaking about this week's figures, Ms Sturgeon said:

"This week's figures show a decrease in the number of people consulting their GP with flu-like symptoms, but an increase in the number of overall estimated cases.

"Since the start of September the number of hospitalised cases has more than doubled. This rise has always been expected as we approach winter, but this means it is even more vital that those deemed at risk do all they can to protect themselves including taking advantage of the vaccination programme."

Revised plans estimating the potential impact Influenza A (H1N1) could have were also published today.

The influenza planning assumptions now revise the estimate for a clinical attack rate during this wave of infection from 30 per cent to 12 per cent. The suggested workforce absence rate has been revised from 12 per cent to five per cent.

The planning paper now estimates the number of fatalities at 1,000 across the UK.

The figures represent a reasonable "worst case scenario" of the impact the pandemic could have. They represent an overall national average and significant regional variation is possible. The figures on workforce absence do not take into account normal levels of sick leave, nor people self-absenting.

Previous suggestions about the impact of the outbreak were overestimated due to a lack of information about the pandemic, but the latest guidance still represents a serious picture.

Experts have continued to revise assumptions according to the latest information available. In this case, they include a better understanding of our own experience to date, and the southern hemisphere's experience of H1N1 in their winter flu season.

This improved understanding means the anticipated impact of the virus is less severe than previously thought.

Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said: "It is good news that the estimated impact of H1N1 has reduced and I give this a cautious welcome.

"However, we must not underestimate the threat that H1N1 still poses.

"The data still indicate that Scotland could face ten times as many cases as experienced last week in the peak weeks of a wave, putting significant pressure on the NHS, public services and business continuity.

"Although this remains a mild illness for the overwhelming majority, it can lead to serious complications as we have again sadly seen today. Any death from this illness is a tragedy my thoughts are with the families and friends of those who have died at this sad time.

"That is why we continue to do all we can to protect those most at risk of serious complications. The launch this week of the vaccination programme means the vaccine is now available to frontline NHS and social care staff and those in high-risk clinical groups.

"It is their key defence and I once again urge everyone who is eligible to go for their vaccine as soon as possible."

Background

Rates of GP consultations for flu-like illness per 100,000 population in Scottish NHS Boards:

Ayrshire and Arran - 54

Borders - 40

Dumfries and Galloway - 32

Fife -71

Forth Valley - 81

Grampian - 63

Greater Glasgow and Clyde - 117

Highland - 55

Lanarkshire - 97

Lothian - 127

Orkney - 31

Shetland - 21

Tayside - 69

Western Isles - 117

Scotland - 88

Population figures per board area, mid-year 2008 estimates (GROS)

Ayrshire and Arran - 367,510

Borders - 112,430

Dumfries and Galloway - 148,580

Fife - 361,815

Forth Valley - 290,047

Grampian - 539,630

Greater Glasgow and Clyde - 1,194,675

Highland - 309,900

Lanarkshire - 561,174

Lothian - 817,727

Orkney - 19,890

Shetland - 21,980

Tayside - 396,942

Western Isles - 26,200

Scotland - 5,168,500