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Influenza A (H1N1) update
03/09/2009
The latest figures about the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) in Scotland have been published today.
Today's findings are:
- A rate of GP consultations for flu-like illnesses - not necessarily H1N1 - across Scotland of 40.2 per 100,000. This is a slight increase from last week's figure of 39.4.
- The number of community samples that tested positive for H1N1 has slightly decreased from last week's figure of 11.4 per cent to 11 per cent.
- These rates suggest that around 897 people have consulted their GP with H1N1 flu in Scotland over the week-long reporting period. However, taking account of the number of people having H1N1 but not consulting their GP, HPS estimate that around 2,500 people have contracted H1N1 in the past week.
- There have been 125 people with influenza A (H1N1) hospitalised since the start of the outbreak. Eight people have required hospital admission in the last week and, as of today, there are four people in hospital in Scotland.
- There have been seven deaths linked to influenza A (H1N1) since the start of the outbreak.
Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon today revealed figures to Parliament as she gave an update on the latest situation regarding the flu pandemic.
Ms Sturgeon also advised parliamentary colleagues of the revision of UK planning assumptions for worst-case scenarios which could be expected at a peak in H1N1 cases.
The updated planning assumptions indicate that:
- Up to 30 per cent of the population may become ill with flu at some point over the course of the pandemic
- 1 per cent of people who become ill with flu may require hospitalisation.
- 0.1 per cent of people who become ill may die from the virus.
Ms Sturgeon said:
"The updated planning assumptions published today are lower than previously predicted, and are in line with our experience of the virus so far.
"These assumptions do not yet take account of the impact of the vaccination programme, and are not predictions - they are assumptions that allow us, and health boards, to plan for the worst, while continuing to hope for the best."
Speaking about the weekly reporting figures Ms Sturgeon added:
"Today's figures show a slight increase in the number of people consulting their GP with flu-like symptoms, and a decrease in the number of overall estimated cases. The proportion of samples testing positive for H1N1 has decreased slightly.
"Fifty-eight practices are providing surveillance information. Over the coming weeks we will continue to increase the number of practices contributing data, which will give us an even clearer picture of how the virus is behaving in Scotland.
"NHS 24 and our GPs are responding very well to the pandemic, as is our Scottish flu response service. The latest NHS 24 figures show that the number of flu related daily calls has increased slightly to around 885, compared to 773 last week.
"Simple hygiene measures like frequent handwashing and using tissues can do a huge amount to help prevent flu spreading.
"In the vast majority of cases, most people have fairly mild symptoms and make a full recovery within a week. But it's important that anyone who is at greater risk gets the help they need as quickly as possible.
"Anyone who is concerned about flu-like symptoms should continue to contact their GP for advice, or NHS 24 on 08454 24 24 24."
Rates of GP consultation for flu-like illness per 100,000 population in Scottish NHS Boards*:
Ayrshire and Arran - 33
Borders - 20
Dumfries and Galloway - 19
Fife - 26
Forth Valley - 39
Grampian - 57
Greater Glasgow and Clyde -37
Highland - 47
Lanarkshire - 36
Lothian - 26
Orkney- 6
Shetland - 46
Tayside - 96
Western Isles - 25
Scotland - 40
* These figures are based on relatively small sample sizes, particularly in smaller boards, so should be interpreted with caution.
The GP consultation rate calculation now takes into account the age bands presenting to GPs and the number of positive swabs in each band. This method is more accurate for arriving at a realistic figure of consultations.
Population figures per board area, mid-year 2008 estimates (GROS)
NHS Board areas Population size
Ayrshire & Arran 367,510
Borders 112,430
Dumfries & Galloway 148,580
Fife 361,815
Forth Valley 290,047
Grampian 539,630
Greater Glasgow & Clyde 1,194,675
Highland 309,900
Lanarkshire 561,174
Lothian 817,727
Orkney 19,890
Shetland 21,980
Tayside 396,942
Western Isles 26,200
Scotland 5,168,500