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Influenza A (H1N1) update
27/08/2009
A 52-year-old man has become the seventh person in Scotland to die after contracting influenza A (H1N1).
The patient who died last night in Edinburgh's Western General Hospital had significant underlying health problems.
At the family's request, no further details will be released.
Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said:
"I extend my sincere condolences to the patient's family and friends at this very sad time.
"As we have seen in previous cases, this patient was suffering from underlying health conditions and his death should not cause alarm among the general population.
"Fortunately in the vast majority of cases, most people have fairly mild symptoms and make a full recovery within a week. But it's important that you get the help you need as quickly as possible if you believe you are at greater risk."
Furthermore, the latest figures about the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) in Scotland have been published today.
Today's findings are:
- A rate of GP consultations for flu-like illnesses - not necessarily H1N1 - across Scotland of 39.4 per 100,000. This is a slight increase from last week's figure of 37.9
- The number of community samples that tested positive for H1N1 has slightly increased from last week's figure of 10.9 per cent to 11.4 per cent.
- These rates suggest that around 1,164 people have consulted their GP with H1N1 flu in Scotland over the week-long reporting period. However, taking account of the number of people having H1N1 but not consulting their GP, HPS estimates that around 3,300 people have contracted H1N1 in the past week.
- There have been 123 people with influenza A (H1N1) hospitalised since the start of the outbreak. Four people have required hospital admission in the last week and, as of today, there are eight people in hospital in Scotland.
- There have been seven deaths linked to influenza A (H1N1) since the start of the outbreak in April.
Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said:
"Today's figures show that overall levels of illness which may be due to H1N1 remain similar to last week with only a slight increase in the number of people consulting their GP with flu-like symptoms, and a slight increase in the number of overall estimated cases. Compared to last week there has been a decrease in consultation rates for the 0 to 64 year age groups.
"In further news today, we have been informed that the patient who was previously being treated for H1N1 in Sweden is now well and has been released from Crosshouse Hospital where she was transferred.
"NHS 24 and our GPs are responding very well to the pandemic, as is our Scottish Flu Response Service. The latest NHS 24 figures show that the number of flu related daily calls has fallen significantly to around 773, compared to 960 last week.
"Simple hygiene measures like frequent handwashing and using tissues can do a huge amount to help prevent flu spreading.
"Anyone who is concerned about flu-like symptoms should continue to contact their GP for advice, or NHS 24 on 08454 24 24 24."
Calculations
The following method can be used to calculate the approximate number of new cases of H1N1 per week suggested by the GP consultation figures:
Average rate of consultation per day (e.g. Scotland = 39.4) multiplied by population/100,000 (e.g. Scotland = 51.68) = Total daily GP consultations for all flu-like illness (e.g. Scotland = 2036.19).
Multiply this figure by five (GP practice working days) for total weekly number of GP consultations for all flu-like illness (e.g. Scotland = 10,180.95).
The estimated number of actual cases of influenza A (H1N1) is derived from the percentage suggested by laboratory testing of samples (e.g. Scotland = 11.4 per cent).
Therefore: 11.4 per cent of 10,180.95 (total consultations for flu-like illness) = 1,160 new cases. It should be emphasised that this is an approximate figure as indicated by random sampling and based on people consulting a GP. Not all people with H1N1 will consult their GP and estimates of the percentage who will consult range from 20 per cent to 50 per cent. With the mid range estimate of 35 per cent we estimate that the total number of people in Scotland who have contracted H1N1 over the last week is 3,039.
Rates of GP consultation for flu-like illness per 100,000 population in Scottish NHS Boards*:
Ayrshire and Arran - 29
Borders - 23
Dumfries and Galloway - 23
Fife - 22
Forth Valley - 46
Grampian - 54
Greater Glasgow and Clyde -35
Highland - 41
Lanarkshire - 27
Lothian - 29
Orkney- 11
Shetland - 103
Tayside - 101
Western Isles - 14
Scotland - 39
* These figures are based on relatively small sample sizes, particularly in smaller boards, so should be interpreted with caution.
Population figures per board area, mid-year 2008 estimates (GROS).
NHS Board areas Population size
Ayrshire & Arran 367,510
Borders 112,430
Dumfries & Galloway 148,580
Fife 361,815
Forth Valley 290,047
Grampian 539,630
Greater Glasgow & Clyde 1,194,675
Highland 309,900
Lanarkshire 561,174
Lothian 817,727
Orkney 19,890
Shetland 21,980
Tayside 396,942
Western Isles 26,200
Scotland 5,168,500