This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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New climate predictions for Scottish Islands
24/07/2003
A new report published today shows how climate is likely to change over the next 100 years across the islands of the British-Irish Council region, including the Western Isles, the Orkney Islands and the Shetland Isles.
The report has been prepared for the British-Irish Council (BIC) by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (part of the Met Office).
The report's main findings for the main Scottish islands are that, by the end of the century:
- annual average temperatures will increase. For the medium-high scenario of future emissions, annual temperatures could rise by 1.8 degrees C for the Western Isles, 2 degrees C for the Orkney Islands and 2.2 degrees C for the Shetland Isles;
- rainfall in summer will decrease by 22 per cent in the Western Isles, 27 per cent in the Orkney Islands and 19 per cent in the Shetland Isles, while in winter rainfall will increase by 8 per cent in the Western Isles, and 10 per cent in both the Orkney Islands and the Shetland Isles;
- average snowfall could decrease by up to 89 per cent; and
- net sea levels around Western Isles and Orkney Islands are expected to rise between 9 to 69 cm. Rises around the Shetland Isles are estimated to be between 9 and 69 cm, excluding land movement.
Welcoming the launch of the scenarios, the Deputy Minister for Environment and Rural Development, Allan Wilson said:
"I am delighted that the continued co-operation of the administrations of the British-Irish Council has resulted in publication of these invaluable climate change scenarios. Climate change is a matter of concern for us all and it is vital we are in a position to tackle its most serious impacts.
"We are committed to reducing the impact of climate change, by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases through the implementation of our Scottish Climate Change Programme, but some impacts of climate change are now unavoidable and preparation and adaptation are essential.
"This report will assist decision makers, particularly those who live and work on the Scottish islands, to meet the challenges posed by climate change by informing long term decisions affected by the climate."
The British-Irish Council (BIC) was created from the Good Friday Agreement, and was formally established when the British-Irish Agreement came into force in December 1999. The purpose of the British-Irish Council is to promote the harmonious and mutually beneficial development of the totality of relationships among the peoples of Ireland and the United Kingdom, Scotland and Wales, Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man (www.britishirishcouncil.org).
The scenarios were based on four contrasting scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions derived from the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The emission scenarios (Low, Medium-Low, Medium High and High Emissions) were used to drive a regional climate change model with a resolution of 25 km. The scenarios were produced by a team led by Dr Geoff Jenkins at the Hadley Centre for Climate Change Prediction (part of the Meteorological Office).
In order to pick up climate changes for the major islands of the BIC area, the Met Office Hadley Centre ran a regional climate model that was at a higher resolution (25 km) than was used to produce last year's climate change scenarios for the UK (50 km). The UKCIP02 scenarios (www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios) remain the recommended option for those investigating the impacts of climate change over mainland England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Although the UKCIP02 scenarios are at a lower resolution, they were generated from three predictions of the Hadley Centre regional climate model (rather than a single prediction as in the case of the BIC scenarios) to make clearer the 'signal' of climate change against the 'noise' of natural climate variability.
The authors attach a relatively high degree of confidence to many of the main trends described in the study. However they cannot be totally certain of the degree of change or some of the specific details. This is because there are scientific uncertainties associated with the climate change scenarios, and because we cannot know how levels of greenhouse gas emissions will change in the future. This is why the reports contain guidance for handling uncertainty, and why there are results for a range of possible futures.
The scenarios can be used by anyone with an interest in knowing what the climate of these islands will be in future and the knock-on effects on potentially sensitive sectors like farming, fisheries, water and flood management and transport. Free advice and guidance on assessing the impacts of climate change and developing adaptation strategies can be obtained from the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) website www.ukcip.org.uk
An electronic version of the report, along with all the underlying data, is available from the BIC website www.british-irishcouncil.org/climatechange